相关论文: The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, in structure…

In epidemiological modelings, the spectral radius of the next generation matrix evaluated at the trivial equilibrium was considered as the basic reproduction number. Also, the global stability of the trivial equilibrium point was determined…

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…

OBJECTIVES: Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 vary across countries. This paper aims to characterise the spatial variability in R0 across the first six months of the global COVID-19 outbreak, and to explore social…

In this paper, we study the $SIS$ (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and $SIR$ (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with individual-based…

In this paper, we consider the infection-age-dependent Kermack--McKendrick model in which host individuals are distributed in a continuous state space. To provide a mathematical foundation for the heterogeneous model, we develop a…

We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in Achterberg and Sensi (2023) to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the…

Although pandemics are often studied as if populations are well-mixed, disease transmission networks exhibit a multi-scale structure stretching from the individual all the way up to the entire globe. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an…

Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…

I discuss the so-called SuperSpreader epidemic, for which SARS is the canonical examples (and, perhaps, MERS will be another). I use simulation by an agent-based model as well as the mathematics of multi-type branching-processes to…

Analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, have been obtained in the past for a wide variety of mathematical models for infectious disease spread, along with expressions for the expected final size of an outbreak.…

We study an SIR epidemic model with a seasonal contact rate and saturated treatment function. It is shown that the basic reproduction number $(\mathcal {R}_0)$ cannot be acted as a threshold that predicts the spread of an infection. Based…

We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…

We consider the simple epidemiological SIS model for a general heterogeneous population introduced by Lajmanovich and Yorke (1976) in finite dimension, and its infinite dimensional generalization we introduced in previous works. In this…

In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…

A feature often observed in epidemiological networks is significant heterogeneity in degree. A popular modelling approach to this has been to consider large populations with highly heterogeneous discrete contact rates. This paper defines an…

Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…

In this work, some new exact and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for the SIR epidemic model, which is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables and parameters. The susceptibles population (S) is in this way explicitly…

In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…

We present a class of SEIR Markov chain models for infectious diseases observed over discrete time in a random human population living in a closed environment. The population changes over time through random births, deaths, and transitions…

We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time…