相关论文: Leveraging Elastic Demand for Forecasting

There are relatively few systematic comparisons of the ex ante counterfactual predictions from structural models to what occurs ex post. This paper uses a large-scale policy change in Boston in 2014 to investigate the performance of…

Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series…

In recent years, there has been a significant focus on advancing the next generation of power systems. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges revolve around addressing the operational impact of uncertainty on predicted data,…

In this paper we formulate an optimization approach to schedule electrical loads given a short term prediction of time-varying power production and the ability to store only a limited amount of electrical energy. The proposed approach is…

Flexibility is a cornerstone of operations management, crucial to hedge stochasticity in product demands, service requirements, and resource allocation. In two-sided platforms, flexibility is also two-sided and can be viewed as the…

Recently, the volatility associated with marginal prices has increased due to large scale integration of renewable generation. Price volatility is undesirable from a consumer perspective. To address this issue, we present a framework for…

Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…

This paper describes the results of research project on optimal pricing for LLC "Perm Local Rail Company". In this study we propose a regression tree based approach for estimation of demand function for local rail tickets considering high…

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

Our primary aim is to find an estimate of the expected shortfall in various situations: (1) Nonparametric situation, when the probability distribution of the incurred loss is unknown, only satisfying some general conditions. Then, following…

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various…

We develop a new approach to estimating flexible demand models with exogenous supply-side shocks. Our approach avoids conventional assumptions of exogenous product characteristics, putting no restrictions on product entry, despite using…

A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Time series forecasting is a critical first step in generating demand plans for supply chains. Experiments on time series models typically focus on demonstrating improvements in forecast accuracy over existing/baseline solutions, quantified…

In the context of global energy strategy, accurate natural gas demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring efficient resource allocation and operational planning. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to cope with the growing complexity…

We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…

Accurate forecasting in the e-commerce finance domain is particularly challenging due to irregular invoice schedules, payment deferrals, and user-specific behavioral variability. These factors, combined with sparse datasets and short…

We present a comparative study of different probabilistic forecasting techniques on the task of predicting the electrical load of secondary substations and cabinets located in a low voltage distribution grid, as well as their aggregated…