相关论文: Leveraging Elastic Demand for Forecasting

Fashion discounters face the problem of ordering the right amount of pieces in each size of a product. The product is ordered in pre-packs containing a certain size-mix of a product. For this so-called lot-type design problem, a stochastic…

Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso…

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

Intermittency is a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building intermittent demand forecasting models, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several…

Production planning must account for uncertainty in a production system, arising from fluctuating demand forecasts. Therefore, this article focuses on the integration of updated customer demand into the rolling horizon planning cycle. We…

In the restructured electricity industry, electricity pooling markets are an oligopoly with strategic producers possessing private information (private production cost function). We focus on pooling markets where aggregate demand is…

Supply chain optimization schemes have more often than not underplayed the role of inherent stochastic fluctuations in the associated variables. The present article focuses on the associated reengagement and correlated renormalization of…

In environments with increasing uncertainty, such as smart grid applications based on renewable energy, planning can benefit from incorporating forecasts about the uncertainty and from systematically evaluating the utility of the forecast…

Recent experiments have exploited elastic instabilities in membranes to create complex patterns. However, the rational design of such structures poses many challenges, as they are products of nonlinear elastic behavior. We pose a simple…

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

This paper is concerned with the determination of pricing strategies for a firm that in each period of a finite horizon receives replenishment quantities of a single product which it sells in two markets, e.g., a long-distance market and an…

With the growing popularity of electric vehicles as a means of addressing climate change, concerns have emerged regarding their impact on electric grid management. As a result, predicting EV charging demand has become a timely and important…

With more renewable energy sources (RES) integrated into the power system, the intermittency of RES places a heavy burden on the system. The uncertainty of RES is traditionally handled by controllable generators to balance the real time…

The increasing reliance on renewable energy generation means that storage may well play a much greater role in the balancing of future electricity systems. We show how heterogeneous stores, differing in capacity and rate constraints, may be…

We consider a sequential decision making process, such as renewable energy trading or electrical production scheduling, whose outcome depends on the future realization of a random factor, such as a meteorological variable. We assume that…

We present a simple dynamic equilibrium model for an online exchange where both buyers and sellers arrive according to a exogenously defined stochastic process. The structure of this exchange is motivated by the limit order book mechanism…

Rapid technological innovation threatens to leave much of the global workforce behind. Today's economy juxtaposes white-hot demand for skilled labor against stagnant employment prospects for workers unprepared to participate in a digital…

This work introduces a methodology to adjust forecasts based on node-specific cost function asymmetry. The proposed model generates savings by dynamically incorporating the cost asymmetry into the forecasting error probability distribution…

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented…

As the proportion of total power supplied by renewable sources increases, it gets more costly to use reserve generation to compensate for the variability of renewables like solar and wind. Hence attention has been drawn to exploiting…