相关论文: Approximation Methods for Analyzing Multiscale Sto…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…
Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…
Cities have long served as nucleating centers for human development and advancement. Cities have facilitated the spread of both human creativity and human disease, and at the same time, efforts to minimize the spread of disease have…
This article is aimed at proposing a generalization of the Ross-Macdonald model for the transmission of Vector-borne diseases in which human-to-human contagions are also considered. We first present this generalized model by formulating a…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
In the infectious disease literature, significant effort has been devoted to studying dynamics at a single scale. For example, compartmental models describing population-level dynamics are often formulated using differential equations. In…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Horizontal gene transfer consists in exchanging genetic materials between microorganisms during their lives. This is a major mechanism of bacterial evolution and is believed to be of main importance in antibiotics resistance. We consider a…
This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…
We study a mosquito-borne epidemic model where the vector population is distinct in aquatic and adult stages and a saturating effect of disease transmission is assumed to ocurr when the number of infectious (humans and mosquitoes) becomes…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
Traditional studies about disease dynamics have focused on global stability issues, due to their epidemiological importance. We study a classical SIR-SI model for arboviruses in two different directions: we begin by describing an…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…