相关论文: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…
It has been known for a long time that for birth-and-death processes started in zero the first passage time of a given level is distributed as a sum of independent exponentially distributed random variables, the parameters of which are the…
The recent Covid-19 epidemic has lead to comparisons of the countries suffering from it. These are based on the number of excess deaths attributed either directly or indirectly to the epidemic. Unfortunately the data on which such…
In the same way as tree rings give us useful information about the climate many decades ago (or even centuries ago in the case of big trees), population pyramids allow us to know birth or death rates several decades earlier. Naturally, they…
We finely describe the speed of "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Under general assumptions on the birth and death rates, we firstly determine the behavior of the successive hitting…
We link two phenomena concerning the asymptotical behavior of stochastic processes: (i) abrupt convergence or cut-off phenomenon, and (ii) the escape behavior usually associated to exit from metastability. The former is characterized by…
We study two time-changed variants of the birth-death process with catastrophe where the time-changing components are the first hitting times of the stable subordinator and the tempered stable subordinator. For both the processes, we derive…
This paper deals with the stochastic modeling of a class of heterogeneous population in a random environment, called birth-death-swap. In addition to demographic events, swap events, i.e. moves between subgroups, occur in the population.…
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative…
Recent literature reports mixed evidence on whether birthweight has decreased during the pandemic. In this paper, we use New York's hospital inpatient discharge data and contribute to this ongoing debate in multiple ways. First, we…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
Over the last ten years, from 2015 to 2024, the day with the highest average number of births was on the 20th of July, while Christmas Day recorded the fewest. Apart from July, a noticeable concentration of births occurred in late…
The Farr-Bertillon law says that for all age-groups the death rate of married people is lower than the death rate of people who are not married (i.e. single, widowed or divorced). Although this law has been known for over 150 years, it has…
We consider the stirring process in the interval $\La_N:=[-N,N]$ of $\mathbb Z$ with births and deaths taking place in the intervals $I_+:=(N-K,N]$, $K>0$, and respectively $I_-:=[-N,-N+K)$. We prove bounds on the truncated moments uniform…
The accounts of medical trials provide very detailed information about the patients' health conditions. In contrast, only minimal data are usually given about demographic factors. Yet, some of these factors can have a notable impact on the…
We examine the trends in Healthy Life Years Expectancy (HLYE) at birth during the past few decades in Europe. We observe that several European countries show a significant drop in HLYE at birth starting from 2003; interrupting what had been…
This paper is an attempt to formalize analytically the question raised in "World Population Explained: Do Dead People Outnumber Living, Or Vice Versa?" Huffington Post, \cite{HJ}. We start developing simple deterministic Malthusian growth…
A stochastic comparison result that makes progress towards understanding the classical multitype contact process with unequal death rates is given. It has long been conjectured that the particle type with the largest birth to death rate…
The Farr-Bertillon law states that the mortality rate of single and widowed persons is about three times the rate of married people of same age. This excess mortality can be measured with good accuracy for all ages except for young…
In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…
We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were…