相关论文: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…

Percolation and synchronization are two phase transitions that have been extensively studied since already long ago. A classic result is that, in the vast majority of cases, these transitions are of the second-order type, i.e. continuous…

A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns,…

Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…

We study the statistical underpinnings of life. We question some common assumptions about the thermodynamics of life and illustrate how, contrary to widespread belief, even in a closed system entropy growth can accompany an increase in…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…

An elementary proof is given for a theorem showing that certain birth-death chains show martingale-like behavior at large stopping times. This is a generalization of and new proof for a theorem from a earlier paper by the author.

With a simple phenomenological metapopulation model, which characterizes the invasion process of an influenza pandemic from a source to a subpopulation at risk, we compare the efficiency of inter- and intra-population interventions in…

Hypertension is one of the most common age-related chronic diseases and by predisposing individuals for heart failure, stroke and kidney disease, it is a major source of morbidity and mortality. Its etiology remains enigmatic despite…

We propose a purely probabilistic model to explain the evolution path of a population maximum fitness. We show that after $n$ births in the population there are about $\ln n$ upwards jumps. This is true for any mutation probability and any…

The American economy can be thought of as a highly connected random network in terms of both its technological and informational connections. The cumulative size of economic recessions, the fall in output from peak to trough, is analysed…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

Many natural and man-made systems require suitable feedback to function properly. In this study, we aim to investigate the impact of additional complex conjugate feedback on globally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators. We find that this…

We discuss the effects of spatial interference between two infectious hotspots as a function of the mobility of individuals (wind speed) between the two and their relative degree of infectivity. As long as the upstream hotspot is less…

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mechanistic epidemic models, the growth rate can…

This paper investigates the emergence of amplitude death and revival of oscillations from the suppression states in a system of coupled dynamical units interacting through delayed cyclic mode. In order to resurrect the oscillation from…

Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…

It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented, publicly-available battle deaths datasets, using new…

Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…

The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address…

We have studied the time lags between commercial line airplane disasters and their occurrence frequency till 2002, as obtained from a freely available website. We show that the time lags seem to be well described by Poisson random events,…