相关论文: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…

In this work, a variant of the birth and death chain with constant intensities, originally introduced by Bruno de Finetti way back in 1957, is revisited. This fact is also underlined by the choice of the title, which is clearly a literal…

Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He…

The twin paradox, which evokes from the the idea that two twins may age differently because of their relative motion, has been studied and explained ever since it was first described in 1906, the year after special relativity was invented.…

This manuscript proposes a significant step in our long-run investigation of infant mortality across species. Since 2016 (Berrut et al. 2016) a succession of studies (Bois et al. 2019) have traced infant mortality from organisms of high…

Genetic and environmental factors are traditionally seen as the sole causes of congenital anomalies. In this paper we introduce a third possible cause, namely random "manufacturing" discrepancies with respect to ``design'' values. A clear…

The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality has become a major public health problem worldwide, especially among older adults living in low- to middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the effects of heat waves and…

Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…

In this paper, we consider a risk process with deterministic growth and multiplicative jumps to model the capital of a low-income household. Reflecting the high-risk nature of the low-income environment, capital losses are assumed to be…

For a birth-death process subject to catastrophes, defined on the state-space $S=\{r,r+1,r+2,...\}$, with $r$ a positive integer or zero, the first-visit time to a state $k\in S$ is considered and the Laplace transform of its probability…

Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far…

We study continuous-time birth-death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q]=1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state…

This study explores the validity of chain effects of clean water, which are known as the "Mills-Reincke phenomenon," in early twentieth-century Japan. Recent studies have reported that water purifications systems are responsible for huge…

An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…

The dynamic nature of system gives rise to dynamical features of epidemic spreading, such as oscillation and bistability. In this paper, by studying the epidemic spreading in growing networks, in which susceptible nodes may adaptively break…

We study an immigration effect in the time-changed linear birth-death process where the immigration occurs only if the population goes extinct. We call this process as the time-fractional linear birth-death process with immigration…

Correlations between high life expectancy and low lifespan inequality are frequently observed. A recent article seeks to explain this phenomenon by proposing that a mortality improvement maps to life expectancy and relative lifespan…

We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource…

We investigate the dynamics of the voter model in which the population itself changes endogenously via the birth-death process. There are two species of voters, labeled A and B, and the population of each species can grow or shrink by the…

The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…