相关论文: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in…

Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, because the likelihood can become numerically…

We analyze evolutionary dynamics on graphs, where the nodes represent individuals of a population. The links of a node describe which other individuals can be displaced by the offspring of the individual on that node. Amplifiers of…

The data of the 2009 A(H1N1) epidemic in Istanbul, Turkey is unique in terms of the collected data, which include not only the hospitalization but also the fatality information recorded during the pandemic. The analysis of this data…

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

Analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, with the exception of perhaps only two critical events, they were too weak to influence the growth of human population. These results reinforce the conclusion that the concept of the Epoch of…

The discovery of past spikes in atmospheric radiocarbon activity, caused by major solar energetic particle events, has opened up new possibilities for high-precision chronometry. The two spikes, or Miyake Events, have now been widely…

The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. We adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic…

Globally disruptive events include asteroid/comet impacts, large igneous provinces and glaciations, all of which have been considered as contributors to mass extinctions. Understanding the overall relationship between the timings of the…

In this paper, we study the significance of ecological interactions and separation of birth and death dynamics in stochastic heterogeneous populations via general birth-death processes. Interactions can manifest through the birth dynamics,…

At the outbreak of the recent inflation surge, the public's attention to inflation was low but increased quickly once inflation started to rise. In this paper, I quantify when and by how much the public's attention to inflation changes, and…

Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…

Recently Osorio et al (Eur. J. Neurosci., 30 (2009) 1554) reported that probability distribution of intervals between successive epileptic seizures follows a power law with exponent 1.5. We theoretically explain this finding by modeling…

Based on a microscopic description of superfluidity in overflowing nuclear systems, it is shown that continuum coupling plays an important role in the suppression, the persistence and the reentrance of pairing. In such systems, the…

The emergence of large-scale connectivity and synchronization are crucial to the structure, function and failure of many complex socio-technical networks. Thus, there is great interest in analyzing phase transitions to large-scale…

There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…

Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…

It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…

Our internal experience of time reflects what is going in the world around us. Our body's natural rhythms get disrupted for a variety of external factors, including exposure to collective events. We collect readings of steps, sleep, and…

We consider a new way of factorizing the transition probability matrix of a discrete-time birth-death chain on the integers by means of an absorbing and a reflecting birth-death chain to the state 0 and viceversa. First we will consider…