相关论文: Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reservi…

The appropriate estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves is traditionally one of the most important task of actuaries working in casualty and property insurance. As certain claims are reported many years after their…

Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…

Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this…

The paper proposes an original methodology for constructing quantitative statistical models based on multidimensional distribution functions constructed on the basis of the insurance companies' data on inshurance policies (including…

An intensive research sprang up for stochastic methods in insurance during the past years. To meet all future claims rising from policies, it is requisite to quantify the outstanding loss liabilities. Loss reserving methods based on…

We propose a stochastic model for claims reserving that captures dependence along development years within a single triangle. This dependence is of autoregressive form of order $p$ and is achieved through the use of latent variables. We…

In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated…

Due to the presence of reporting and settlement delay, claim data sets collected by non-life insurance companies are typically incomplete, facing right censored claim count and claim severity observations. Current practice in non-life…

In this paper, we address the identification and estimation of insurance models where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes random damages and allows for several claims, while insurers…

A common approach to the claims reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). Within this framework, the claims in different origin and development years are assumed to be independent variables. If this assumption is…

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…

Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…

The occurrence of a claim often impacts not one but multiple insurance coverages provided in the contract. To account for this multivariate feature, we propose a new individual claims reserving model built around the activation of the…

One of the main goals in non-life insurance is to estimate the claims reserve distribution. A generalized time series model, that allows for modeling the conditional mean and variance of the claim amounts, is proposed for the claims…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

The existence of large and extreme claims of a non-life insurance portfolio influences the ability of (re)insurers to estimate the reserve. The excess over-threshold method provides a way to capture and model the typical behaviour of…

The safeguarding of resources is one of the principal subjects of halieutics studies. Among the solutions proposed to avert the disappearance of species, the setting in place of no take reserves is often mentioned. Most work on this…

We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a…

For estimating conditional survival functions, non-parametric estimators can be preferred to parametric and semi-parametric estimators due to relaxed assumptions that enable robust estimation. Yet, even when misspecified, parametric and…

Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We…