相关论文: Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Recent research on social contagion processes has revealed the limitations of traditional networks, which capture only pairwise relationships, to characterize complex multiparty relationships and group influences properly. Social contagion…
In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…
In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of spreading processes taking place over time-varying networks. A common approach to model time-varying networks is via Markovian random graph processes. This modeling approach presents the following…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks,…
Realistic human contact networks capable of spreading infectious disease, for example studied in social contact surveys, exhibit both significant degree heterogeneity and clustering, both of which greatly affect epidemic dynamics. To…
We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model…
The robustness of human social networks against epidemic propagation relies on the propensity for physical contact adaptation. During the early phase of infection, asymptomatic carriers exhibit the same activity level as susceptible…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
This paper presents a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model for epidemics with arbitrary distributions of transmission and recovery times. Using the message passing approach we also derive a new pairwise-like model for…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum…
In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…
Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…
In this paper we are concerned with the SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic on open clusters of bond percolation on the squared lattice. For the SIR model, a susceptible vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of…
A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…
We introduce the concept of a Markov influence system (MIS) and analyze its dynamics. An MIS models a random walk in a graph whose edges and transition probabilities change endogenously as a function of the current distribution. This…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is studied in multilayer networks with arbitrary number of links across the layers. By following the mapping to bond percolation we give the analytical expression for the epidemic threshold and…