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To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-05-14 Xavier Bardina , Marco Ferrante , Carles Rovira

An SIR model with the coinfection of the two infectious agents in a single host population is considered. The model includes the environmental carry capacity in each class of population. A special case of this model is analyzed and several…

动力系统 · 数学 2019-05-14 Samia Ghersheen , Vladimir Kozlov , Vladimir G. Tkachev , Uno Wennergren

In this paper, we introduce a general framework for co-infection as cooperative SIR dynamics. We first solve analytically CGCG model [1] and then the generalized model in symmetric scenarios. We calculate transition points, order parameter,…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2019-07-24 Fatemeh Zarei , Saman Moghimi-Araghi , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad

The SIR model is a classical model characterizing the spreading of infectious diseases. This model describes the time-dependent quantity changes among Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered groups. By introducing space-depend effects such…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2024-09-18 Md Abu Talha , Yongjia Xu , Shan Zhao , Weihua Geng

This paper studies the dynamics of a network-based SIRS epidemic model with vaccination and a nonmonotone incidence rate. This type of nonlinear incidence can be used to describe the psychological or inhibitory effect from the behavioral…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2018-11-14 Lijun Liu , Xiaodan Wei , Naimin Zhang

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-06-19 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-06-15 Peter Cotton

How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2018-08-22 M. A. Di Muro , L. G. Alvarez-Zuzek , S. Havlin , L. A. Braunstein

We consider an epidemiological model that includes waning and boosting of immunity. Assuming that repeated exposure to the pathogen fully restores immunity, we derive an SIRS-type model with discrete and distributed delays. First we prove…

动力系统 · 数学 2016-06-14 Maria Vittoria Barbarossa , Monika Polner , Gergely Röst

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 M. E. J. Newman

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2007-05-23 J. Verdasca , M. M. Telo da Gama , A. Nunes , N. R. Bernardino , J. M. Pacheco , M. C. Gomes

A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2017-03-16 Derdei Bichara , Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2020-09-08 Bnaya Gross , Shlomo Havlin

We study the dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, vertical transmission vaccination for the newborns and the capacity of treatment, that takes into account the limitedness of the medical resources and the…

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…

动力系统 · 数学 2022-07-26 Robert F. Allen , Katherine Heller , Matthew A. Pons

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…

概率论 · 数学 2010-05-26 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , David Sirl

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2017-10-05 Matthieu Nadini , Kaiyuan Sun , Enrico Ubaldi , Michele Starnini , Alessandro Rizzo , Nicola Perra

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2023-03-29 Rossella Della Marca , Nadia Loy , Andrea Tosin