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Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-31 Amenah AL-Najafi , Ugur Tirnakli , Kenric P. Nelson

This paper considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent but not necessary identically distributed. The main result is a sharp lower bound for the optimal win…

概率论 · 数学 2018-12-12 Pieter C. Allaart , Jose A. Islas

The sums and maxima of non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraint is that there exists a unique series in a…

概率论 · 数学 2021-10-11 Natalia Markovich

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

概率论 · 数学 2016-02-12 Tomasz Łuczak , Katarzyna Mieczkowska , Matas Šileikis

The article studies the almost surely asymptotics of extreme values $\bar{\xi}_n = \max_{1\leq i \leq n} \xi_i$, where $ \xi , \xi_1 , \xi_2 , \ldots$ are discrete identically distributed random variables. One of the main results on this…

概率论 · 数学 2025-03-27 Kateryna Akbash , Ivan Matsak

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

概率论 · 数学 2025-09-09 Sergey Foss , Anton Tarasenko , Georgiy Krivtsov

We study the extremes for a class of a symmetric stable random fields with long range dependence. We prove functional extremal theorems both in the space of sup measures and in the space of cadlag functions of several variables. The limits…

概率论 · 数学 2018-10-17 Zaoli Chen , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for two sub-vectors of a random vector with a multivariate extreme value distribution, corresponding to the limit distribution of the maximum of a multidimensional stationary sequence with…

概率论 · 数学 2010-06-09 Clara Viseu , Luísa Pereira , Ana Paula Martins , Helena Ferreira

Let $K_n$ denote the number of distinct values among the first $n$ terms of an infinite exchangeable sequence of random variables $(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$. We prove for $n=3$ that the extreme points of the convex set of all possible laws of $K_3$…

概率论 · 数学 2021-03-16 Theodore Zhu

We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-06 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

We explore the dependence structure in the sampled sequence of large networks. We consider randomized algorithms to sample the nodes and study extremal properties in any associated stationary sequence of characteristics of interest like…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2015-02-25 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Natalia M. Markovich , Jithin K. Sreedharan

In this paper we improve some existing results concerning the approximation of the distribution of extremes of a 1-dependent and stationary sequence of random variables. We enlarge the range of applicability and improve the approximation…

概率论 · 数学 2012-11-26 Alexandru Amarioarei

Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be independent identically distributed random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We consider upper bounds on $\max_x \mathbb{P}(a_1X_1+\cdots+a_nX_n=x)$ under various restrictions on $X_i$ and the weights $a_i$. When…

概率论 · 数学 2020-08-04 Tomas Juškevičius , Valentas Kurauskas

We consider a general class of round-robin tournament models of equally strong players. In these models, each of the $n$ players competes against every other player exactly once. For each match between two players, the outcome is a value…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-21 Yaakov Malinovsky

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-26 Yongxin Li , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Hansheng Wang

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-14 Aryeh Kontorovich , Amichai Painsky

The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in distribution to an infinite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this convergence to…

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

We study the distribution of the maximum $M$ of a random walk whose increments have a distribution with negative mean and belonging, for some $\gamma>0$, to a subclass of the class $\mathcal{S}_\gamma$--see, for example, Chover, Ney, and…

概率论 · 数学 2017-11-29 Stan Zachary , Sergey Foss