相关论文: Credit risk - A structural model with jumps and co…

Asset correlations are an intuitive and therefore popular way to incorporate event dependence into event risk, e.g., default risk, modeling. In this paper we study the case of estimation of inter-sector asset correlations by separation of…

In the Vasicek credit portfolio model, tail risk is driven primarily by the asset-correlation parameter, yet empirically is subject to correlation risk. We propose a stochastic correlation extension of the Vasicek framework in which the…

Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…

Climate-related phenomena are increasingly affecting regions worldwide, manifesting as floods, water scarcity, and heat waves, significantly impairing companies' assets and productivity. It is essential for asset managers to quantify the…

The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with…

We study a credit risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative, and competitive,…

Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…

We study the impact of contagion in a network of firms facing credit risk. We describe an intensity based model where the homogeneity assumption is broken by introducing a random environment that makes it possible to take into account the…

We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume…

We give a comprehensive review of credit term structure modeling methodologies. The conventional approach to modeling credit term structure is summarized and shown to be equivalent to a particular type of the reduced form credit risk model,…

The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for…

Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…

This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…

The credit crisis roiling the world's financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however, demonstrates that the losses in certain…

Model risk in credit portfolio models is a serious issue for banks but has so far not been tackled comprehensively. We will demonstrate how to deal with uncertainty in all model parameters in an all-embracing, yet easy-to-implement way.

We consider the problem of accurately measuring the credit risk of a portfolio consisting of loss exposures such as loans, bonds and other financial assets. We are particularly interested in the probability of large portfolio losses. We…

Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…

In the paper we study dynamics of the arbitrage prices of credit default swaps within a hazard process model of credit risk. We derive these dynamics without postulating that the immersion property is satisfied between some relevant…

The insufficient understanding of the credit network structure was recognized as a key factor for regulators' underestimation of the destructive systematic risk during the financial crisis that started in 2007. The existing credit network…