种群与进化
Discovering and isolating infected individuals is a cornerstone of epidemic control. Because many infectious diseases spread through close contacts, contact tracing is a key tool for case discovery and control. However, although contact…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our…
Reproduction numbers, like the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, play an important role in the analysis and application of dynamic models, including contagion models and ecological population models. One difficulty in deriving…
Ordinary differential equations (ODE) models have a wide variety of applications in the fields of mathematics, statistics, and the sciences. Though they are widely used, these models are sometimes viewed as inflexible with respect to the…
The well-known Linear Chain Trick (LCT) allows modelers to derive mean field ODEs that assume gamma (Erlang) distributed passage times, by transitioning individuals sequentially through a chain of sub-states. The time spent in these states…
Antibiotic resistance is a growing public health problem. To gain a fundamental understanding of resistance evolution, a combination of systematic experimental and theoretical approaches is required. Evolution experiments combined with…
Environmental heterogeneity is a determining factor of the structure of biological communities. Thus, understanding the distribution of species along environmental gradients provides assistance to conservation. The goal of this study was to…
The outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already created emergency situations in almost every country of the world. The disease spreads all…
Clinical trials of a vaccine during an epidemic face particular challenges, such as the pressure to identify an effective vaccine quickly to control the epidemic, and the effect that time-space-varying infection incidence has on the power…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected most of the countries on Earth. It has become a pandemic outbreak with more than 24 million confirmed infections and above 840 thousand deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider a mathematical…
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…
We study the evolutionary dynamics of games under environmental feedback using replicator equations for two interacting populations. One key feature is to consider jointly the co-evolution of the dynamic payoff matrices and the state of the…
Inferring parameters related to the aggregation pattern of parasites and to their dispersal propensity is important for predicting their ecological consequences and evolutionary potential. Nonetheless, it is notoriously difficult to infer…
We developed a model and a software package for stochastic simulations of transmission of COVID-19 and other similar infectious diseases, that takes into account contact network structures and geographical distribution of population…
We analyze a general theory for coexistence and extinction of ecological communities that are influenced by stochastic temporal environmental fluctuations. The results apply to discrete time (stochastic difference equations), continuous…
We analyze ecological systems that are influenced by random environmental fluctuations. We first provide general conditions which ensure that the species coexist and the system converges to a unique invariant probability measure (stationary…
Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key…
In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment…
Interactions among individuals in natural populations often occur in a dynamically changing environment. Understanding the role of environmental variation in population dynamics has long been a central topic in theoretical ecology and…