种群与进化
We analyze the susceptible-infected-susceptible model for epidemic spreading in which a fraction of the individuals become immune by vaccination. This process is understood as a dilution by vaccination, which decreases the fraction of the…
According to the World Health Organization the global incidence rate of dengue infections have risen drastically in recent years. It is estimated that globally the number of new infections is in the range of $100$ to $400$ million per…
A completely non-generous and reciprocal population of players can create a robust cooperating state that cannot be invaded by always defecting free riders if the interactions among players are repeated for long enough. However, strict…
Species survival in the $(3, 1)$ May-Leonard system is determined by the mobility, with a critical mobility threshold between long-term coexistence and extinction. We show experimentally that the critical mobility threshold is determined by…
Here I investigate some mathematical aspects of the maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE). In particular I address the geometrical structure of METE endowed by information geometry. As novel results, the macrostate entropy is calculated…
In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public…
Using a population dynamics inspired by an ensemble of growing cells, a set of fluctuation theorems linking observables measured at the lineage and population levels are derived. One of these relations implies specific inequalities…
During epidemics, estimation of the effective reproduction number (ERN) associated with infectious disease is a challenging topic for policy development and medical resource management. There is still an open question about the dominant…
The Black Death is regarded as a turning point in late medieval European history. Recent studies have shown that even regions that have so far been perceived in the literature as not or only marginally affected by the epidemic, suffered…
This study investigates the influence of lattice structure in evolutionary games. The snowdrift games is considered in networks with high clustering coefficients, that use four different strategy-updating. Analytical conjectures using pair…
We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and establish the final size relation. It…
We construct a pathwise formulation of a growing population of cells, based on two different samplings of lineages within the population, namely the forward and backward samplings. We show that a general symmetry relation, called…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through…
In epidemic or pandemic situations, resources for testing the infection status of individuals may be scarce. Although group testing can help to significantly increase testing capabilities, the (repeated) testing of entire populations can…
We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first principle considerations, we explore how a novel PDE with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained.…
National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…
Divergence time estimation is crucial to provide temporal signals for dating biologically important events, from species divergence to viral transmissions in space and time. With the advent of high-throughput sequencing, recent Bayesian…
COVID-19 has devastated the entire global community. Vaccines present an opportunity to mitigate the pandemic; however, the effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. We propose a…
Understanding the conditions of feasibility and stability in ecological systems is a major challenge in theoretical ecology. The seminal work of May in 1972 and recent developments based on the theory of random matrices have shown the…