种群与进化
The reduction of computational costs for marine ecosystem models is important for the investigation and detection of the relevant biogeochemical processes because such models are computationally expensive. In order to lower these…
We propose a risk measure and construct an infectious diseases hazard map for India. Given an outbreak location, a hazard index is assigned to each city using an effective distance that depends on inter-city mobilities instead of…
We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or…
Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…
The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. We adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic…
Multitype branching processes are ideal for studying the population dynamics of stem cell populations undergoing mutation accumulation over the years following transplant. In such stochastic models, several quantities are of clinical…
Ecological and evolutionary dynamics have been historically regarded as unfolding at broadly separated timescales. However, these two types of processes are nowadays well documented to much more tightly than traditionally assumed,…
Local coexistence of species in large ecosystems is traditionally explained within the broad framework of niche theory. However, its rationale hardly justifies rich biodiversity observed in nearly homogeneous environments. Here we consider…
The COVID-19 epidemic is the last of a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind in the last century. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from the names of the seven compartments that…
Resource competition theory predicts coexistence and exclusion patterns based on species R*s, the minimum resource values required for a species to persist. A central assumption of the theory is that all species have equal access to…
We introduce a model to study the impact of catastrophes on evolutionary paths. If we do not allow catastrophes the number of changes in the maximum fitness of a population grows logarithmically with respect to time. Allowing catastrophes…
Ancestral state reconstruction is one of the most important tasks in evolutionary biology. Conditions under which we can reliably reconstruct the ancestral state have been studied for both discrete and continuous traits. However, the…
Due to the relevance for conservation biology, there is an increasing interest to extend evolutionary genomics models to plant, animal or microbial species. However, this requires to understand the effect of life-history traits absent in…
A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack-McKendrick theory from…
The bacterium Group A Streptococcus (Streptococcus pyogenes, GAS) is a human-specific pathogen and a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. Despite decades of research our knowledge of GAS infection and immunity is incomplete,…
Of the many modern approaches to calculating evolutionary distance via models of genome rearrangement, most are tied to a particular set of genomic modelling assumptions and to a restricted class of allowed rearrangements. The "position…
We introduce and investigate the space of \emph{equidistant} $X$-\emph{cactuses}. These are rooted, arc weighted, phylogenetic networks with leaf set $X$, where $X$ is a finite set of species, and all leaves have the same distance from the…
May and Leonard (SIAM J. Appl. Math 1975) introduced a three-species Lotka-Volterra type population model that exhibits heteroclinic cycling. Rather than producing a periodic limit cycle, the trajectory takes longer and longer to complete…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
Antipredator behavior is present in many biological systems where individuals collectively react to an imminent attack. The antipredator response may influence spatial pattern formation and ecosystem stability but requires an organism's…