种群与进化
We introduce a minimalist outbreak forecasting model that combines data-driven parameter estimation with variational data assimilation. By focusing on the fundamental components of nonlinear disease transmission and representing data in a…
Phylogenetic trees are widely used to understand the evolutionary history of organisms. Tree shapes provide information about macroevolutionary processes. However, macroevolutionary models are unreliable for inferring the true processes…
Tree-child networks are an important network class which are used in phylogenetics to model reticulate evolution. In a recent paper, Pons and Batle (2021) conjectured a relation between tree-child networks and certain words. In this short…
We formulate a compartmental model for the propagation of a respiratory disease in a patchy environment. The patches are connected through the mobility of individuals, and we assume that disease transmission and recovery are possible during…
At macroevolutionary time scales, and for a constant mutation rate, there is an expected linear relationship between time and the number of inferred neutral mutations (the "molecular clock"). However, at shorter time scales a number of…
This paper concerns the modeling and numerical simulation of the process of speciation. In particular, given conditions for which one or more speciation events within an ecosystem occur, our aim is to develop the necessary modeling and…
Phylostratigraphy suggests that new genes are continually born de novo from non-genic sequences, and the genes that persist found new lineages, contributing to the adaptive evolution of organisms. While recent evidence supports the view…
Cooperative behaviour has been extensively studied as a choice between cooperation and defection. However, the possibility to not participate is also frequently available. This type of problem can be studied through the optional public…
Covid-19 is one of the most dreaded pandemics/epidemics in the world threatening the human population. The dynamics of this pandemic is quite complicated and prediction of pandemic states often fails. In this work, we study and correlate…
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward…
We consider the dynamics of two coupled three-species population patches, incorporating the Allee Effect, focussing on the onset of extreme events in the coupled system. First we show that the interplay between coupling and the Allee effect…
The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact…
This paper develops an agent-based disease spread model on a contact network in an effort to guide efforts at surveillance testing in small to moderate facilities such as nursing homes and meat-packing plants. The model employs Monte Carlo…
In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…
Theoretical models show that in a non-constant environment two predator species feeding on one and the same prey may coexist because the two species occupy different temporal niches: the one with the longer handling time has the advantage…
Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, it is of interest to understand how the infections spread as the combined result of measures taken by central planners (governments) and individual behavior. In this work, the spread of Covid-19 is…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
Human Papillomaviruses (HPV) are one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted infections (STI) and the most oncogenic viruses known to humans. The vast majority of HPV infections clear in less than 3 years, but the underlying mechanisms,…
We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases…
We examine a modification of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (FKPP) process in which the diffusing substance requires a parent density field for reproduction. A biological example would be the density of diffusing spores…