概率论

Mechanical shufflers used in many casinos employ a card shuffling scheme called \emph{shelf shuffling}. In a single-shelf shuffling, cards arrive sequentially, and each incoming card is independently placed on the top or the bottom of a…

The frog model with a Bernoulli initial configuration is an interacting particle system on the $d$-dimensional lattice ($d \geq 2$) with two types of particles: active and sleeping. Active particles perform independent simple random walks.…

In a random model of minimum cost bipartite matching based on exponentially distributed edge costs, we show that the distribution of the cost of the optimal solution can be computed efficiently. The distribution is represented by its moment…

We consider two dimensional random walks conditioned to stay in the positive quadrant. Assuming that the increments of the walk have finite second moments and that the drift vector is co-oriented with one of two axes, we construct positive…

We study 1-Wasserstein propagation of chaos for "McKean-type" nonlinear Markov chains and their associated interacting particle systems. This paper is organized into two parts: the first part combines arguments from various areas of…

We study two time-changed variants of the birth-death process with catastrophe where the time-changing components are the first hitting times of the stable subordinator and the tempered stable subordinator. For both the processes, we derive…

We consider a discrete stochastic process, indexed by lines through the unit disk in the plane, which models the observed photon counts in a medical X-ray tomography scan. We first prove a functional law of large numbers, showing that this…

In this paper, we discuss and compare two probabilistic approaches for associating a stochastic differential equation with a McKean-type partial differential equation featuring a reaction term and path-dependent coefficients. The…

We establish sharp rates for propagation of chaos in R\'enyi divergences for interacting diffusion systems at stationarity. Building upon the entropic hierarchy established in Lacker (2023), we show that under strong isoperimetry and weak…

We present a unified operator-theoretic framework for stochastic calculus based on the factorization (Id - E)F = {\delta}_X {\Pi}_X D_X F, valid for F_T^X-measurable F in L^2({\Omega}) when the driving process X has the representation…

We address the problem of minimizing the expected first-passage time of a Brownian motion with Poissonian resetting, with respect to the resetting rate $r.$ We consider both the one-boundary and the two-boundary cases.We investigate the…

We derive a new upper bound for the correlations in a heterogeneous one-dimensional Ising model with free boundary conditions. The new upper bound quantifies the simultaneous decay of correlations due to weakness of nearest-neighbor…

The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic class of bifurcating dynamical systems. Simple time-series…

In large dimension, we study the asymptotic behavior of the mean number of critical points with index k below a level u for an isotropic centered Gaussian random field defined on a family of subsets of $R^d$ depending on d. We prove the…

We prove a non-asymptotic central limit theorem for vector-valued martingale differences using Stein's method, and use Poisson's equation to extend the result to functions of Markov Chains. We then show that these results can be applied to…

We study random-turn resource-allocation games. In the Trail of Lost Pennies, a counter moves on $\mathbb{Z}$. At each turn, Maxine stakes $a \in [0,\infty)$ and Mina $b \in [0,\infty)$. The counter $X$ then moves adjacently, to the right…

We study random walks on the giant component of Hyperbolic Random Graphs (HRGs), in the regime when the degree distribution obeys a power law with exponent in the range $(2,3)$. In particular, we first focus on the expected time for a…

In tug-of-war, two players compete by moving a counter along edges of a graph, each winning the right to move at a given turn according to the flip of a possibly biased coin. The game ends when the counter reaches the boundary, a fixed…

In this article, we collected more than thirty theorems on expansions of iterated Ito and Stratonovich stochastic integrals, which have been formulated and proved by the author in the period from 1997 to 2025. These theorems open up a new…

The article is devoted to the expansions of iterated Ito stochastic integrals based on generalized multiple Fourier series converging in the sense of norm in the space $L_2([t, T]^k),$ $k\in\mathbb{N}.$ The method of generalized multiple…