相关论文: Probability of hitting a distant point for the vot…

We consider the possible visits to visible points of a random walker moving up and right in the integer lattice (with probability $\alpha$ and $1-\alpha$, respectively) and starting from the origin. We show that, almost surely, the…

We give a simple inequality that compares the laws of two random variables taking values in a convex subset of a normed vector space. By combining this with Arratia's coupling, recently refined by Koukoulopoulos and the author, we obtain a…

The voter process is a classic stochastic process that models the invasion of a mutant trait $A$ (e.g., a new opinion, belief, legend, genetic mutation, magnetic spin) in a population of agents (e.g., people, genes, particles) who share a…

Random walks of n steps taken into independent uniformly random directions in a d-dimensional Euclidean space (d larger than 1), are named Dirichlet when their step lengths are distributed according to a Dirichlet law. The latter continuous…

In elections, the vote shares or turnout rates show a strong spatial correlation. The logarithmic decay with distance suggests that a 2D noisy diffusive equation describes the system. Based on the study of U.S. presidential elections data,…

We outline basic properties of a symmetric random walk in one dimension, in which the length of the nth step equals lambda^n, with lambda<1. As the number of steps N-->oo, the probability that the endpoint is at x, P_{lambda}(x;N),…

We study fine properties of the convergence of a high intensity shot noise field towards the Gaussian field with the same covariance structure. In particular we (i) establish a strong invariance principle, i.e. a quantitative coupling…

We consider the problem of locating the source (starting vertex) of a simple random walk, given a snapshot of the set of edges (or vertices) visited in the first $n$ steps. Considering lattices $\mathbb{Z}^d$, in dimensions $d \geq 5$, we…

As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…

This elementary treatment first summarizes extreme values of a Bernoulli random walk on the one-dimensional integer lattice over a finite discrete time interval. Both the symmetric (unbiased) and asymmetric (biased) cases are discussed.…

We investigate a variation of the classical voter model in which the set of influencing agents depends on an individual's current opinion. The initial population consists of a random sample of equally sized sub-populations for each state,…

The distribution of the first positive position reached by a random walker starting at the origin is central to the analysis of extremes and records in one-dimensional random walks. In this work, we present a detailed and self-contained…

We revisit the uncertainty principle from the point of view suggested by A. Wigderson and Y. Wigderson. This approach is based on a primary uncertainty principle from which one can derive several inequalities expressing the impossibility of…

Let $X_n,...,X_1$ be i.i.d. random variables with distribution function $F$. A statistician, knowing $F$, observes the $X$ values sequentially and is given two chances to choose $X$'s using stopping rules. The statistician's goal is to stop…

Many statistical models have likelihoods which are intractable: it is impossible or too expensive to compute the likelihood exactly. In such settings, a common approach is to replace the likelihood with an approximation, and proceed with…

We derive the asymptotic behavior of the occupation measure of the unit ball, for super-Brownian motion started from the Dirac measure at a distant point x and conditioned to hit the unit ball. In the critical dimension d=4, we obtain a…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

We are studying the motion of a random walker in two and three dimensional continuum with uniformly distributed jump-length. This is different from conventional Lavy flight. In 2D and 3D continuum, a random walker can move in any direction,…

A general approach to a broad class of asymptotic problems related to long-time influence of small perturbations, of both deterministic and stochastic type, is presented in the paper. The main characteristic of this influence is a limiting…

The distribution of the first positive position reached by a random walker starting from the origin is fundamental for understanding the statistics of extremes and records in one-dimensional random walks. We present a comprehensive study of…