相关论文: Epidemic branching processes with and without vacc…

Horizontal gene transfer consists in exchanging genetic materials between microorganisms during their lives. This is a major mechanism of bacterial evolution and is believed to be of main importance in antibiotics resistance. We consider a…

It is well known that a simple, supercritical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson process turns into a subcritical such process, if conditioned to die out. We prove that the corresponding holds true for general, multi-type branching, where…

The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…

Analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, have been obtained in the past for a wide variety of mathematical models for infectious disease spread, along with expressions for the expected final size of an outbreak.…

We consider a supercritical Galton-Watson branching process with immigration. It is well known that under suitable conditions on the offspring and immigration distributions, there is a finite, strictly positive limit ${\mathcal{W}}$ for the…

Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…

The Beyond-Linear-Use-of-Equation-Superposition (BLUES) function method is extended to coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations and applied to the epidemiological SIRS model with vaccination. Accurate analytic approximations are…

A new age-distributed immuno-epidemiological model with information-based vaccine uptake suggested in this work represents a system of integro-differential equations for the numbers of susceptible individuals, infected individuals,…

We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the…

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and…

The Galton--Watson process is the simplest example of a branching process. The relationship between the offspring distribution, and, when the extinction occurs almost surely, the distribution of the total progeny is well known. In this…

After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…

We introduce and study the dynamics of an \emph{immortal} critical branching process. In the classic, critical branching process, particles give birth to a single offspring or die at the same rates. Even though the average population is…

We couple a multi-type stochastic epidemic process with a directed random graph, where edges have random lengths. This random graph representation is used to characterise the fractions of individuals infected by the different types of…

The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We consider a variant of this process on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees, where vertices are equipped with a random fitness representing…

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…

We employ the framework of multitype Galton-Watson processes to model a population of dividing cells. The cellular type is represented by its biological age, defined as the count of harmful proteins hosted by the cell. The stochastic…

We introduce a general class of branching Markov processes for the modelling of a parasite infection in a cell population. Each cell contains a quantity of parasites which evolves as a diffusion with positive jumps. The growth rate,…