相关论文: Epidemic branching processes with and without vacc…

The response of the immune system to different vaccination patterns is studied with a simple model. It is argued that the history and characteristics of the pattern defines very different secondary immune responses in the case of infection.…

To mitigate the pandemic stemming from COVID-19, numerous nations have initiated extensive vaccination campaigns for their citizens since late 2020. While affluent countries have predominantly received vaccine allocations, fewer doses have…

We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…

We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…

Vaccination has been proven to be the most effective method to prevent infectious diseases. However, in many low and middle-income countries with geographically dispersed and nomadic populations, last-mile vaccine delivery can be extremely…

We consider the problem of estimating the elapsed time since the most recent common ancestor of a finite random sample drawn from a population which has evolved through a Bienayme-Galton-Watson branching process. More specifically, we are…

In this paper, we establish the necessary and sufficient criterion for the contact process on Galton-Watson trees (resp. random graphs) to exhibit the phase of extinction (resp. short survival). We prove that the survival threshold…

The goal of this article is to contribute towards the conceptual and quantitative understanding of the evolutionary benefits for (microbial) populations to maintain a seed bank (consisting of dormant individuals) when facing fluctuating…

The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i)…

Understanding vaccine effects on post-infection outcomes is critical for evaluating the full value proposition of a vaccine. However, defining appropriate causal effects on such outcomes is challenging because infection is affected by…

We consider a (sub) critical Galton-Watson process with neutral mutations (infinite alleles model), and decompose the entire population into clusters of individuals carrying the same allele. We specify the law of this allelic partition in…

We consider a branching model for a population of dividing cells infected by parasites. Each cell receives parasites by inheritance from its mother cell and independent contamination from outside the population. Parasites multiply randomly…

Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…

Evolutionary branching is analysed in a stochastic, individual-based population model under mutation and selection. In such models, the common assumption is that individual reproduction and life career are characterised by values of a…

Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…

Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…

Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…

The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…