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In this paper, we investigate the reasons that the Bayesian estimator of the tail probability is always higher than the frequentist estimator. Sufficient conditions for this phenomenon are established both by using Jensen's Inequality and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-07 Nan Shen , Bárbara González , Luis Raúl Pericchi

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-16 Feynman Liang , Liam Hodgkinson , Michael W. Mahoney

We study efficient algorithms for linear regression and covariance estimation in the absence of Gaussian assumptions on the underlying distributions of samples, making assumptions instead about only finitely-many moments. We focus on how…

We prove that the tail probabilities of sums of independent uniform random variables, up to a multiplicative constant, are dominated by the Gaussian tail with matching variance and find the sharp constant for such stochastic domination.

概率论 · 数学 2026-03-05 Xinjie He , Tomasz Tkocz , Katarzyna Wyczesany

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

We study polynomial time algorithms for estimating the mean of a heavy-tailed multivariate random vector. We assume only that the random vector $X$ has finite mean and covariance. In this setting, the radius of confidence intervals achieved…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-06-05 Samuel B. Hopkins

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-07 Archil Gulisashvili , Peter Tankov

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

概率论 · 数学 2021-12-02 Miles E. Lopes , Junwen Yao

In this article we study the tail probability of the mass of Gaussian multiplicative chaos. With the novel use of a Tauberian argument and Goldie's implicit renewal theorem, we provide a unified approach to general log-correlated Gaussian…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-01 Mo Dick Wong

We consider the hash function $h(x) = ((ax+b) \bmod p) \bmod n$ where $a,b$ are chosen uniformly at random from $\{0,1,\ldots,p-1\}$. We prove that when we use $h(x)$ in hashing with chaining to insert $n$ elements into a table of size $n$…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2017-06-12 Mathias Bæk Tejs Knudsen

There is given a method for estimation of a probability distribution tail in terms of characteristic function. Key words: characteristic function; tail of a distribution.

概率论 · 数学 2016-07-12 Lev B. Klebanov , Andrea Karlova

A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-07-03 Yuhyeong Jang , Raanju R. Sundararajan , Wagner Barreto-Souza

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-03-14 S. Y. Novak

Heavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-10-14 Matt Taddy , Hedibert Freitas Lopes , Matt Gardner

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 J. C. Bronski , R. M. McLaughlin

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

Understanding the shape of a distribution of data is of interest to people in a great variety of fields, as it may affect the types of algorithms used for that data. We study one such problem in the framework of distribution property…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-06 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Amartya Shankha Biswas , Kavya Ravichandran , Ronitt Rubinfeld

We take an $L_1$-dense class of functions $\Cal F$ on a measurable space $(X,\Cal X)$ and a sequence of i.i.d. $X$-valued random variables $\xi_1,\dots,\xi_n$, and give a good estimate on the tail behaviour of $\sup\limits_{f\in\Cal…

概率论 · 数学 2014-07-07 Peter Major

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-18 Enrique F. Castillo , Cristina Solares , Patricia Gomez
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