相关论文: Volatility conditional on price trends

We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V-shaped and {\it vanishes} around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow…

Trend and Value are pervasive anomalies, common to all financial markets. We address the problem of their co-existence and interaction within the framework of Heterogeneous Agent Based Models (HABM). More specifically, we extend the…

We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash…

Based on a criterium of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…

We use Fourier analysis to access risk in financial products. With it we analyze price changes of e.g. stocks. Via Fourier analysis we scrutinize quantitatively whether the frequency of change is higher than a change in (conserved) company…

This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…

Statistical properties of an order book and the effect they have on price dynamics were studied using the high-frequency NASDAQ Level II data. It was observed that the size distribution of marketable orders (transaction sizes) has power law…

Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long ranged…

In this chapter we review some recent results on the dynamics of price formation in financial markets and its relations with the efficient market hypothesis. Specifically, we present the limit order book mechanism for markets and we…

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the…

In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling…

We present a stochastic volatility market model where volatility is correlated with return and is represented by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. With this model we exactly measure the leverage effect and other stylized facts, such as mean…

The problem of estimating trend and seasonal variation in time-series data has been studied over several decades, although mostly using single time series. This paper studies the problem of estimating these components from functional data,…

The paper presents a step forward into the development of the theory of meaning. Stock and financial markets are examined from communication-theoretical perspective on the dynamics of information and meaning. This study focuses on the link…

Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the…

In this study we examine the evolution of price, volume, and the bid-ask spread after extreme 15 minute intraday price changes on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find that due to strong behavioral trading there is an overreaction. Furthermore…

In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For…

We propose a non-linear observation-driven version of the Hasbrouck (1991) model for dynamically estimating trades' market impact and information content. We find that market impact displays an intraday pattern superimposed with large…

We demonstrate that minority mechanisms arise in the dynamics of markets because of effects of price impact; accordingly the relative importance of minority and delayed majority mechanisms depends on the frequency of trading. We then use…