相关论文: Bridging the ARCH model for finance and nonextensi…

The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's original proposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases are characterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\it…

The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process…

This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…

Short-term patterns in financial time series form the cornerstone of many algorithmic trading strategies, yet extracting these patterns reliably from noisy market data remains a formidable challenge. In this paper, we propose an…

Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…

In this paper, a novel method based on the entropy estimation of the observation space eigenvalues is proposed to estimate the number of the sources in Gaussian and Non-Gaussian noise. In this method, the eigenvalues of correlation matrix…

The classical Gaussian ensembles of random matrices can be constructed by maximizing Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon's entropy, S_{BGS} = - \int d{\bf H} [P({\bf H})] \ln [P({\bf H})], with suitable constraints. Here we construct and analyze…

In this paper, we develop a complete methodology for detecting time-varying/non time-varying parameters in ARCH processes. For this purpose, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of the time-varying ARCH model (tv-ARCH) which…

Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…

The return distributions of the coherent noise model are studied for the system size independent case. It is shown that, in this case, these distributions are in the shape of q-Gaussians, which are the standard distributions obtained in…

The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

The results of a series of theoretical studies are reported, examining the convergence rate for different approximate representations of $\alpha$-stable distributions. Although they play a key role in modelling random processes with jumps…

In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…

Data-driven modelling and computational predictions based on maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt-principle) aim at finding as-simple-as-possible - but not simpler then necessary - models that allow to avoid the data overfitting problem. We…

We extend the theory from Fan and Li (2001) on penalized likelihood-based estimation and model-selection to statistical and econometric models which allow for non-negativity constraints on some or all of the parameters, as well as…

The cornerstone of Boltzmann-Gibbs ($BG$) statistical mechanics is the Boltzmann-Gibbs-Jaynes-Shannon entropy $S_{BG} \equiv -k\int dx f(x)\ln f(x)$, where $k$ is a positive constant and $f(x)$ a probability density function. This theory…

This paper develops a novel two-step estimating procedure for heavy-tailed AR models with non-zero median GARCH-type noises, allowing for time-varying volatility. We first establish the self-weighted quantile regression estimator (SQE)…

The problem of Non-Gaussian Component Analysis (NGCA) is about finding a maximal low-dimensional subspace $E$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ so that data points projected onto $E$ follow a non-gaussian distribution. Although this is an appropriate model…