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This paper presents a parametric estimation method for ill-observed linear stationary Hawkes processes. When the exact locations of points are not observed, but only counts over time intervals of fixed size, methods based on the likelihood…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-01-11 Felix Cheysson , Gabriel Lang

Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-01-31 François Roueff , Rainer Von Sachs

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

概率论 · 数学 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…

概率论 · 数学 2025-01-30 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

We consider noisy non-synchronous discrete observations of a continuous semimartingale with random volatility. Functional stable central limit theorems are established under high-frequency asymptotics in three setups: one-dimensional for…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-07-28 Randolf Altmeyer , Markus Bibinger

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of networks of interacting non-linear Hawkes processes modeling a homogeneous population of neurons in the large population limit. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the…

概率论 · 数学 2021-07-06 Sophie Heesen , Wilhelm Stannat

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto

Power spectral densities are often interpreted through ensemble averages and long-time asymptotics. In many experiments, however, only a single finite record is available, so spectral estimators remain broadly distributed and the usual…

Fitting parametric models by optimizing frequency domain objective functions is an attractive approach of parameter estimation in time series analysis. Whittle estimators are a prominent example in this context. Under weak conditions and…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-07-26 Jens-Peter Kreiss , Efstathios Paparoditis

In this paper, we consider the Whittle estimator for the parameters of a stationary solution of a continuous-time linear state space model sampled at low frequencies. In our context the driving process is a L\'evy process which allows…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-02-24 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Celeste Mayer

We find the asymptotic distribution of the multi-dimensional multi-scale and kernel estimators for high-frequency financial data with microstructure. Sampling times are allowed to be asynchronous and endogenous. In the process, we show that…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-11-05 Markus Bibinger , Per A. Mykland

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…

概率论 · 数学 2024-12-20 Wei Xu

In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…

概率论 · 数学 2023-06-29 Raviar S. Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel R. H. Mandjes

In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-07-17 Enno Mammen

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2017-06-28 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy
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