相关论文: Tail Structure and the Ordering of the Standard De…

For differences between means of continuous data from independent groups, the customary scale-free measure of effect is the standardized mean difference (SMD). To justify use of SMD, one should be reasonably confident that the group-level…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…

The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure…

A notorious problem in queueing theory is to compute the worst possible performance of the GI/G/1 queue under mean-dispersion constraints for the interarrival and service time distributions. We address this extremal queue problem by…

Let $X$ be an $n\times n$ symmetric random matrix with independent but non-identically distributed entries. The deviation inequalities of the spectral norm of $X$ with Gaussian entries have been obtained by using the standard concentration…

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

While implicit regularization facilitates benign overfitting in low-noise regimes, recent theoretical work predicts a sharp phase transition to harmful overfitting as the noise-to-signal ratio increases. We experimentally isolate the…

We study the full distribution $P_{N}\left(A\right)$ of sums $A = \sum_{i=1}^N$ where $x_1, \dots, x_N$ are $N \gg 1$ independent and identically distributed random variables each sampled from a given distribution $p(x)$ with a…

This study develops two robust, quantile-sliced moment systems, mean and median absolute deviation (MAD and MedAD moments), to serve as foundational tools in parametric modeling, statistical inference, and describing distributional…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

In this paper, we obtain an upper bound for the Gini mean difference based on mean, variance and correlation for the case when the variables are correlated. We also derive some closed-form expressions for the Gini mean difference when the…

Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…

We study the finite-time behaviour of the popular temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm when combined with tail-averaging. We derive finite time bounds on the parameter error of the tail-averaged TD iterate under a step-size choice…

We study discrete statistical mechanics systems perturbed by a random environment without a finite second moment. Specifically, we consider a random environment whose tail distribution satisfies $P[\omega > x] \sim x^{-\gamma}$ as $x \to…

We consider a new approach in the definition of two-dimensional heavy-tailed distributions. Namely, we introduce the classes of two-dimensional long-tailed, of twodimensional dominatedly varying and of two-dimensional consistently varying…

Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…

For a stochastic difference equation $D_n=A_nD_{n-1}+B_n$ which stabilises upon time we study tail distribution asymptotics of $D_n$ under the assumption that the distribution of $\log(1+|A_1|+|B_1|)$ is heavy-tailed, that is, all its…

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

In the real world, long-tailed data distributions are prevalent, making it challenging for models to effectively learn and classify tail classes. However, we discover that in the field of drug chemistry, certain tail classes exhibit higher…