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Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…

离散数学 · 计算机科学 2017-04-25 Thomas Steinke , Jonathan Ullman

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-10-14 Hong Shaopeng

The stochastic gradient noise (SGN) is a significant factor in the success of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Following the central limit theorem, SGN was initially modeled as Gaussian, and lately, it has been suggested that stochastic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Barak Battash , Ofir Lindenbaum

Although stochastic optimization is central to modern machine learning, the precise mechanisms underlying its success, and in particular, the precise role of the stochasticity, still remain unclear. Modelling stochastic optimization…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-12 Liam Hodgkinson , Michael W. Mahoney

A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-05-11 J. Martin van Zyl

This paper introduces a new classification scheme - head/tail breaks - in order to find groupings or hierarchy for data with a heavy-tailed distribution. The heavy-tailed distributions are heavily right skewed, with a minority of large…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-10-22 Bin Jiang

We study the probability density function for the fluctuations of the magnetic order parameter in the low temperature phase of the XY model of finite size. In two-dimensions this system is critical over the whole of the low temperature…

The normal distribution and its perturbation has left an immense mark on the statistical literature. Hence, several generalized forms were developed to model different skewness, kurtosis, and body shapes. However, it is not easy to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-12-10 Matthias Wagener , Mohammad Arashi

In univariate data, there exist standard procedures for identifying dominating features that produce the largest observations. However, in the multivariate setting, the situation is quite different. This paper aims to provide tools and…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-29 Miriam Hägele , Jaakko Lehtomaa

Understanding the algorithmic bias of \emph{stochastic gradient descent} (SGD) is one of the key challenges in modern machine learning and deep learning theory. Most of the existing works, however, focus on \emph{very small or even…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-30 Jingfeng Wu , Difan Zou , Vladimir Braverman , Quanquan Gu

Recent studies have provided both empirical and theoretical evidence illustrating that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in various scenarios. Such heavy tails potentially result in iterates with diverging…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-02-23 Hongjian Wang , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli , Murat A. Erdogdu

The statistical distribution of the ratio of two normal random variables is characterized by its heavy-tailed nature and absence of finite moments. The shape of its density function is highly variable, capable of exhibiting unimodal or…

概率论 · 数学 2023-11-07 Sheng Yang , Zhengtao Gui

We propose the test for distinguishing between two classes of distribution tails using only the largest order statistics of the sample and state its consistency. We do not assume belonging the corresponding distribution functions to any…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-02-24 Igor V. Rodionov

We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-08-04 Marcelo Brutti Righi , Paulo Sergio Ceretta

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Janet E. Heffernan , Sidney I. Resnick

The off-shell characteristics of pion generalized parton distributions (GPDs) and transverse momentum dependent parton distributions (TMDs) are examined within the framework of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model. In our previous papers, we…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2025-07-15 Jin-Li Zhang

The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh

We study trade-offs between the population risk curvature, geometry of the noise, and preconditioning on the generalisation ability of the multipass Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent (PSGD). Many practical optimisation heuristics…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Simon Vary , Tyler Farghly , Ilja Kuzborskij , Patrick Rebeschini

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-28 Mike Laszkiewicz , Johannes Lederer , Asja Fischer