相关论文: Prediction of Large Events in Directed Sandpiles

We introduce an external control to reduce the size of avalanches in some sandpile models exhibiting self organized criticality. This rather intuitive approach seems to be missing in the vast literature on such systems. The control action,…

We study the occurrence of events, subject to threshold, in a representative SOC sandpile model and in high-resolution rainfall data. The predictability in both systems is analyzed by means of a decision variable sensitive to event…

It is a common belief that power-law distributed avalanches are inherently unpredictable. This idea affects phenomena as diverse as evolution, earthquakes, superconducting vortices, stock markets, etc; from atomic to social scales. It…

The average avalanche size can be calculated exactly in a number of models of self-organised criticality (SOC). While the calculation is straight-forward in one dimension, it is more involved in higher dimensions and further complicated by…

We derive the steady state properties of a general directed ``sandpile'' model in one dimension. Using a central limit theorem for dependent random variables we find the precise conditions for the model to belong to the universality class…

Abelian sandpile models, both deterministic, such as the Bak, Tang, Wiesenfeld (BTW) model [P. Bak, C. Tang and K. Wiesenfeld, Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 59}, 381 (1987)], and stochastic, such as the Manna model [S.S. Manna, J. Phys. A {\bf 24},…

We examine probability distribution for avalanche sizes observed in self-organized critical systems. While a power-law distribution with a cutoff because of finite system size is typical behavior, a systematic investigation reveals that it…

The well known Sandpile model of self-organized criticality generates avalanches of all length and time scales, without tuning any parameters. In the original models the external drive is randomly selected. Here we investigate a drive which…

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…

We study a model of ``organized'' criticality, where a single avalanche propagates through an \textit{a priori} static (i.e., organized) sandpile configuration. The latter is chosen according to an i.i.d. distribution from a Borel…

We study extreme events of avalanche activities in finite-size two-dimensional self-organized critical (SOC) models, specifically the stochastic Manna model (SMM) and the Bak-Tang-Weisenfeld (BTW) sandpile model. Employing the approach of…

Time series resulting from wave decomposition show the existence of different correlation patterns for avalanche dynamics. For the d=2 Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld model, long range correlations determine a modification of the wave size distribution…

We study sandpile models with stochastic toppling rules and having sticky grains so that with a non-zero probability no toppling occurs, even if the local height of pile exceeds the threshold value. Dissipation is introduced by adding a…

We consider the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model on a two-dimensional square lattice of lattice sizes up to L=4096. A detailed analysis of the probability distribution of the size, area, duration and radius of the avalanches will be…

Rotational constraint representing a local external bias generally has non-trivial effect on the critical behavior of lattice statistical models in equilibrium critical phenomena. In order to study the effect of rotational bias in a out of…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

Recognising changes in collective dynamics in complex systems is essential for predicting potential events and their development. Possessing intrinsic attractors with laws associated with scale invariance, self-organised critical dynamics…

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…

Sandpile models are known to resist exact results. In this direction, space-time correlations between avalanches have proven to be especially difficult to access. One of the main obstacle to do so comes from taking memory effects in a…

Predicting the future behaviour of complex systems exhibiting critical-like dynamics is often considered to be an intrinsically hard task. Here, we study the predictability of the depinning dynamics of elastic interfaces in random media…