相关论文: Bayesian nonparametric copulas with tail dependenc…

Modern datasets commonly feature both substantial missingness and many variables of mixed data types, which present significant challenges for estimation and inference. Complete case analysis, which proceeds using only the observations with…

Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

We demonstrate both analytically and numerically that the existing methods for measuring tail dependence in copulas may sometimes underestimate the extent of extreme co-movements of dependent risks and, therefore, may not always comply with…

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

We study a broad class of asymmetric copulas introduced by Liebscher (2008) as a combination of multiple - usually symmetric - copulas. The main thrust of the paper is to provide new theoretical properties including exact tail dependence…

Understanding multivariate dependencies in both the bulk and the tails of a distribution is an important problem for many applications, such as ensuring algorithms are robust to observations that are infrequent but have devastating effects.…

Modelling non-homogeneous and multi-component data is a problem that challenges scientific researchers in several fields. In general, it is not possible to find a simple and closed form probabilistic model to describe such data. That is why…

We propose a new semi-parametric distributional regression smoother that is based on a copula decomposition of the joint distribution of the vector of response values. The copula is high-dimensional and constructed by inversion of a pseudo…

We study the tail asymptotics of the sum of two heavy-tailed random variables. The dependence structure is modeled by copulas with the so-called tail order property. Examples are presented to illustrate the approach. Further for each…

In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…

To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…

We propose a model to flexibly estimate joint tail properties by exploiting the convergence of an appropriately scaled point cloud onto a compact limit set. Characteristics of the shape of the limit set correspond to key tail dependence…

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual…

Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical…

We introduce a dependent Bayesian nonparametric model for the probabilistic modeling of membership of subgroups in a community based on partially replicated data. The focus here is on species-by-site data, i.e. community data where…