相关论文: Bayesian nonparametric copulas with tail dependenc…

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

We consider a new approach in the definition of two-dimensional heavy-tailed distributions. Namely, we introduce the classes of two-dimensional long-tailed, of twodimensional dominatedly varying and of two-dimensional consistently varying…

The Gaussian copula is a powerful tool that has been widely used to model spatial and/or temporal correlated data with arbitrary marginal distributions. However, this kind of model can potentially be too restrictive since it expresses a…

Nonparametric and nonlinear measures of statistical dependence between pairs of random variables are important tools in modern data analysis. In particular the emergence of large data sets can now support the relaxation of linearity…

Understanding the dependence relationship of credit spreads of corporate bonds is important for risk management. Vine copula models with tail dependence are used to analyze a credit spread dataset of Chinese corporate bonds, understand the…

The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…

We define in a probabilistic way a parametric family of multivariate extreme value distributions. We derive its copula, which is a mixture of several complete dependent copulas and total independent copulas, and the bivariate tail…

We propose a Bayesian approach using improper priors for hierarchical linear mixed models with flexible random effects and residual error distributions. The error distribution is modelled using scale mixtures of normals, which can capture…

In this work we propose a semiparametric bivariate copula whose density is defined by a piecewise constant function on disjoint squares. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and prove that they reduce to the…

Probability density estimation is a central task in statistics. Copula-based models provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling multivariate distributions, allowing for the specifications of models for the marginal distributions…

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for…

There is a growing interest in learning how the distribution of a response variable changes with a set of predictors. Bayesian nonparametric dependent mixture models provide a flexible approach to address this goal. However, several…

Motivated by a bidimensional discrete-time risk model in insurance, we study the second-order asymptotics for two kinds of tail probabilities of the stochastic discounted value of aggregate net losses including two business lines. These are…

We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…

Modeling of the dependence structure across heterogeneous data is crucial for Bayesian inference since it directly impacts the borrowing of information. Despite the extensive advances over the last two decades, most available proposals…

Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…

Copulas are a powerful tool for modeling multivariate distributions as they allow to separately estimate the univariate marginal distributions and the joint dependency structure. However, known parametric copulas offer limited flexibility…

Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…

Copula-based dependence modeling often relies on parametric formulations. This is mathematically convenient, but can be statistically inefficient when the parametric families are not suitable for the data and model in focus. A Bayesian…