相关论文: Control of SIR Epidemics: Sacrificing Optimality f…
We study the impact of model parameter uncertainty on optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic model and consider testing for isolation as…
This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…
In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with variable size of population is considered. We study optimal control problem for an SIR model with "vaccination" and "treatment" as controls. It is shown that an optimal control exists. We have…
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models, we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity while…
We consider a behavioral-feedback SIR epidemic model, in which the infection rate depends in feedback on the fractions of susceptible and infected agents, respectively. The considered model allows one to account for endogenous adaptation…
We study the problem of estimating the parameters (i.e., infection rate and recovery rate) governing the spread of epidemics in networks. Such parameters are typically estimated by measuring various characteristics (such as the number of…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
We give the explicit solution of the optimal control problem which consists in minimizing the epidemic peak in the SIR model when the control is an attenuation factor of the infectious rate, subject to a L 1 budget constraint. The optimal…
Understanding how to effectively control an epidemic spreading on a network is a problem of paramount importance for the scientific community. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for policies that mitigate the spread,…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
Until a vaccine or therapy is found against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, reaching herd immunity appears to be the only mid-term option. However, if the number of infected individuals decreases and eventually fades only beyond this threshold,…