相关论文: Bankruptcy probabilities under non-Poisson inspect…

We study a dynamic model of a non-life insurance portfolio. The foundation of the model is a compound Poisson process that represents the claims side of the insurer. To introduce clusters of claims appearing, e.g. with catastrophic events,…

In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $\zeta>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative L\'{e}vy insurance risk process. For this…

We propose a model in which, in exchange to the payment of a fixed transaction cost, an insurance company can choose the retention level as well as the time at which subscribing a perpetual reinsurance contract. The surplus process of the…

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…

We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive…

In this article, we introduce a new definition of bankruptcy for a spectrally negative L\'evy insurance risk process. More precisely, we study the Gerber-Shiu distribution for a ruin model where at each time the surplus goes negative, an…

Important models in insurance, for example the Carm{\'e}r--Lundberg theory and the Sparre Andersen model, essentially rely on the Poisson process. The process is used to model arrival times of insurance claims. This paper extends the…

We consider an insurance company whose surplus is represented by the classical Cramer-Lundberg process. The company can invest its surplus in a risk free asset and in a risky asset, governed by the Black-Scholes equation. There is a…

Importance sampling is a popular variance reduction method for Monte Carlo estimation, where a notorious question is how to design good proposal distributions. While in most cases optimal (zero-variance) estimators are theoretically…

Valuing corporate bonds in systemic economies is challenging due to intricate webs of inter-institutional exposures. When a bank defaults, cascading losses propagate through the network, with payments determined by a system of fixed-point…

This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…

We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the…

Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…

We review Markov models of surplus in life insurance based on a counting process following Norberg (1991), uniting probabilistic theory with elements of practice largely drawn from UK experience. First, we organize models systematically…

A public firm's bankruptcy prediction is an important financial research problem because of the security price downside risks. Traditional methods rely on accounting metrics that suffer from shortcomings like window dressing and…

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

We investigate in this paper an alternative method to simulation based recursive importance sampling procedure to estimate the optimal change of measure for Monte Carlo simulations. We propose an algorithm which combines (vector and…

We consider a diffusion risk model where proportional reinsurance can be bought. In order to stabilise the surplus process, one tries to keep the drawdown, that is the difference of the surplus to its historical maximum, in an interval…

We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample…

This paper deals with the assessment of the performance of a system under a finite planning horizon. The system is subject to two dependent causes of failure: internal degradation and sudden shocks. We assume that internal degradation…