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The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Hyotae Kim , Athanasios Kottas

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-05 Sobin Joseph , Lekhapriya Dheeraj Kashyap , Shashi Jain

Hawkes process (HP) is a point process with a conditionally dependent intensity function. This paper defines the tempered fractional Hawkes process (TFHP) by time-changing the HP with an inverse tempered stable subordinator. We obtained…

概率论 · 数学 2024-05-17 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

We prove that the number of points of a stationary linear Hawkes process lying in any bounded subset of the real line has exponential moments, without any other assumption than the one needed for existence of such stationary process, namely…

概率论 · 数学 2025-05-22 Théo Leblanc

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…

概率论 · 数学 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2018-01-10 Xuefeng Gao , Xiang Zhou , Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper, we study a discrete-time analogue of a Hawkes process, modelled as a Poisson autoregressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. The model is characterized to allow these parameters to take negative…

概率论 · 数学 2024-09-04 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

Non-linear Hawkes processes with memory kernels given by the sum of Erlang kernels are considered. It is shown that their stability properties can be studied in terms of an associated class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes,…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-27 Aline Duarte , Eva Löcherbach , Guilherme Ost

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-05 Rafael Lima

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-02-14 Ban Zheng , François Roueff , Frédéric Abergel

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-03-20 Frederic Paik Schoenberg

We study a class of interacting nonlinear Hawkes point processes on the integer lattice in which each component is reset after its own jumps. The intensity of a component depends on the post-reset activity of its nearest neighbours, which…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-14 Branda P. I. Gonçalves , Lucien Mauffret

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

概率论 · 数学 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…

概率论 · 数学 2017-06-14 Matthias Kirchner

Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Alex Boyd , Andrew Warrington , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Danica Xiao