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This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…

证券定价 · 定量金融 2024-06-13 Jiho Park

In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2019-02-25 Antoine Lejay , Paolo Pigato

We present a simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2015-06-04 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

We consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with general fee structures under popular stochastic volatility models such as Heston, Hull-White, Scott, $\alpha$-Hypergeometric, $3/2$, and $4/2$ models. In particular, we analyze the…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2022-08-01 Zhenyu Cui , Anne MacKay , Marie-Claude Vachon

Fundamental variables in financial market are not only price and return but a very important role is also played by trading volumes. Here we propose a new multivariate model that takes into account price returns, logarithmic variation of…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-07-14 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-04-09 Alessio Brini , Jimmie Lenz

This paper examines empirical methods for estimating the response of aggregated electricity demand to high-frequency price signals, the short-term elasticity of electricity demand. We investigate how the endogeneity of prices and the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-06-23 Silvana Tiedemann , Raffaele Sgarlato , Lion Hirth

Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-05-29 Stefano Peluso , Antonietta Mira , Pietro Muliere

In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2018-06-13 Davide Valenti , Giorgio Fazio , Bernardo Spagnolo

Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2008-12-02 Rui Vilela Mendes , Maria Joao Oliveira

We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2024-05-24 Jaehyung Choi

The problem of non-stationarity in financial markets is discussed and related to the dynamic nature of price volatility. A new measure is proposed for estimation of the current asset volatility. A simple and illustrative explanation is…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-09-08 Sergey S. Stepanov

This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-10-28 Yuta Kurose

Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2012-11-12 Kenan Qiao

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2022-05-04 Taras Bodnar , Vilhelm Niklasson , Erik Thorsén

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-25 Minseok Shin , Donggyu Kim , Yazhen Wang , Jianqing Fan

We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2018-01-16 Carles Bretó

This paper aims to enhance the understanding of liquidity provider (LP) returns in automated market makers (AMMs). LPs face market risk as well as adverse selection due to risky asset holdings in the pool that they provide liquidity to and…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2023-06-19 Jason Milionis , Xin Wan , Austin Adams

In this chapter, we consider volatility swap, variance swap and VIX future pricing under different stochastic volatility models and jump diffusion models which are commonly used in financial market. We use convexity correction approximation…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2017-12-08 Anatoliy Swishchuk , Zijia Wang

Assuming frictionless trading, classical stochastic portfolio theory (SPT) provides relative arbitrage strategies. However, the costs associated with real-world execution are state-dependent, volatile, and under increasing stress during…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2025-07-15 Nader Karimi , Erfan Salavati