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This paper develops a continuous functional framework for treatment effects propagating through geographic space and economic networks. We derive a master equation from three independent economic foundations -- heterogeneous agent…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-29 Tatsuru Kikuchi

We propose a novel method, termed the M-learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect and total treatment effects and identifying relevant subgroups within a mediation framework. The procedure comprises four key steps. First, we compute…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-14 Xingyu Li , Qing Liu , Tony Jiang , Hong Amy Xia , Brian P. Hobbs , Peng Wei

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Models of network diffusion typically rely on the Laplacian matrix, capturing interactions via direct connections. Beyond direct interactions, information in many systems can also flow via indirect pathways, where influence typically…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2025-10-10 Lluís Torres-Hugas , Jordi Duch , Sergio Gómez

Empirical work often uses treatment assigned following geographic boundaries. When the effects of treatment cross over borders, classical difference-in-differences estimation produces biased estimates for the average treatment effect. In…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-06-13 Kyle Butts

Applied work under interference typically models outcomes as functions of own treatment and a low-dimensional exposure mapping of others' treatments, even when that mapping may be misspecified. We ask what policy object such exposure-based…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-27 Yechan Park , Xiaodong Yang

Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. From this we know the average causal effect of X on Y. We are now interested in assessing, for a case…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-07-02 Philip Dawid , Macartan Humphreys , Monica Musio

Causal mediation analysis is widely used to investigate how causal effects operate through specific pathways linking treatments or exposures to outcomes. Recently, \texttt{crumble} was developed to enable nonparametric estimation of several…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

Estimating causal effects of joint interventions on multiple variables is crucial in many domains, but obtaining data from such simultaneous interventions can be challenging. Our study explores how to learn joint interventional effects…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-06 Armin Kekić , Sergio Hernan Garrido Mejia , Bernhard Schölkopf

Event studies often conflate direct treatment effects with indirect effects operating through endogenous covariate adjustment. We develop a dynamic panel event study framework that separates these effects. The framework allows for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-12 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

In causal mediation analysis, nonparametric identification of the pure (natural) direct effect typically relies on, in addition to no unobserved pre-exposure confounding, fundamental assumptions of (i) so-called…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-09-08 Caleb H. Miles , Phyllis Kanki , Seema Meloni , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Not accounting for competing events in survival analysis can lead to biased estimates, as individuals who die from other causes do not have the opportunity to develop the event of interest. Formal definitions and considerations for causal…

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Tong Chen , Stijn Vansteelandt , David Burgner , Toby Mansell , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

The synthetic control method (SCM) allows estimating the causal effect of an intervention in settings where panel data on a small number of treated and control units are available. We show that the existing SCM, as well as its extensions,…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-05-20 Giovanni Mellace , Alessandra Pasquini

Causal mediation analyses investigate the mechanisms through which causes exert their effects, and are therefore central to scientific progress. The literature on the non-parametric definition and identification of mediational effects in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-13 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Iván Díaz

Semi-competing risks refer to the phenomenon where a primary event (such as mortality) can ``censor'' an intermediate event (such as relapse of a disease), but not vice versa. Under the multi-state model, the primary event consists of two…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-10 Yuhao Deng , Yi Wang , Xiang Zhan , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into a portion operating through a hypothesized mediator and a residual direct portion. Identification of natural direct and indirect effects typically rests on the mediator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-19 Yuki Ohnishi , Fan Li

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-04 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) for structured treatments (e.g., graphs, images, texts). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose the generalized Robinson decomposition, which (i) isolates…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-29 Jean Kaddour , Yuchen Zhu , Qi Liu , Matt J. Kusner , Ricardo Silva