相关论文: Convex Optimization of the Basic Reproduction Numb…
In this work, we revisit the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ definition for analysis of epidemic-non-epidemic phases describing the dynamics of the discrete stochastic version of the epidemic $SIR$ model based on the Master…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
A pulse vaccination SIR model with periodic infection rate $\beta (t)$ have been proposed and studied. The basic reproductive number $R_0$ is defined. The dynamical behaviors of the model are analyzed with the help of persistence,…
For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward…
Symmetry concepts in parametrized dynamical systems may reduce the number of external parameters by a suitable normalization prescription. If, under the action of a symmetry group G, parameter space A becomes a (locally) trivial principal…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread on the complete graph on $N$ vertices incorporating dynamic partnerships, which we assume to be monogamous. This can be seen as a variation on the contact process in which some form of edge…
We consider the problem of optimal allocation strategies for a (perfect) vaccine in an infinite-metapopulation model (including SIS, SIR, SEIR,. . .), when the loss function is given by the effective reproduction number Re, which is defined…
Recent evidences show that individuals who recovered from COVID-19 can be reinfected. However, this phenomenon has rarely been studied using mathematical models. In this paper, we propose a SEIRE epidemic model to describe the spread of the…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
We propose a mathematical framework, based on conic geometric programming, to control a susceptible-infected-susceptible viral spreading process taking place in a directed contact network with unknown contact rates. We assume that we have…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
We discuss how the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives changes our estimate of the COVID-19 basic reproduction number, also known as $R_0$.
In this article, we consider an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with four classes of individuals. We have discussed about basic properties of the system and found the basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the system. The stability analysis of the…
We apply optimal control theory to a tuberculosis model given by a system of ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize the cost of interventions, considering reinfection and post-exposure…
The time-varying reproduction number $R(t)$ measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
We initiate a formal study of reproducibility in optimization. We define a quantitative measure of reproducibility of optimization procedures in the face of noisy or error-prone operations such as inexact or stochastic gradient computations…
Daily pandemic surveillance, often achieved through the estimation of the reproduction number, constitutes a critical challenge for national health authorities to design countermeasures. In an earlier work, we proposed to formulate the…