相关论文: Metapopulation dynamics of a respiratory disease w…
Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local in situ interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases in itinere. Here, we extend the…
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…
We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
In this paper, we focus on susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on metapopulation networks, where nodes represent subpopulations, and where agents diffuse and interact. Recent studies suggest that heterogeneous network structure…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have…
The spread of viruses in biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks can have devastating effects; developing and analyzing mathematical models of these systems can be insightful and lead to societal benefits. Prior…
Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…