相关论文: Epidemiological theory of virus variants
This review is an introduction to theoretical models and mathematical calculations for biological evolution, aimed at physicists. The methods in the field are naturally very similar to those used in statistical physics, although the…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Traditionally evolution is seen as a process where from a pool of possible variations of a population (e.g. biological species or industrial goods) a few variations get selected which survive and proliferate, whereas the others vanish.…
We reformulate models in epidemiology and population dynamics in terms of probability distributions. This allows us to construct the Fisher information, which we interpret as the metric of a one-dimensional differentiable manifold. For…
The investigation of the Hamiltonian dynamical counterpart of phase transitions, combined with the Riemannian geometrization of Hamiltonian dynamics, has led to a preliminary formulation of a differential-topological theory of phase…
Theoretical modeling of computer virus/worm epidemic dynamics is an important problem that has attracted many studies. However, most existing models are adapted from biological epidemic ones. Although biological epidemic models can…
We develop a macroscopic description of the evolutionary dynamics by following the temporal dynamics of the total Shannon entropy of sequences, denoted by $S$, and the average Hamming distance between them, denoted by $H$. We argue that a…
This paper first establishes a strong law of large numbers and a strong invariance principle for forward and backward sums of near-epoch dependent sequences. Using these limiting theorems, we develop a general asymptotic theory on the Wald…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…
We propose a compartmental model for a disease with temporary immunity and secondary infections. From our assumptions on the parameters involved in the model, the system naturally evolves in three time scales. We characterize the equilibria…
This paper is concerned with the study of the stability of dynamical systems evolving on time scales. We first {formalize the notion of matrix measures on time scales, prove some of their key properties and make use of this notion to study…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
Different strains competing for a common pool of susceptible individuals is a key problem in mathematical epidemiology. To address this problem, we investigate a two-strain model within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework.…
RNA viruses are a widely used tool to study evolution experimentally. Many standard protocols of virus propagation and competition are done at nominally low multiplicity of infection (m.o.i.), but lead during one passage to two or more…
Several pathogens use evolvability as a survival strategy against acquired immunity of the host. Despite their high variability in time, some of them exhibit quite low variability within the population at any given time, a somehow…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…