相关论文: Epidemiological theory of virus variants

In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…

Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…

In this paper we revisit and adapt to viral evolution an approach based on the theory of branching process advanced by Demetrius, Schuster and Sigmund ("Polynucleotide evolution and branching processes", Bull. Math. Biol. 46 (1985)…

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…

In the event symmetric approach to quantum gravity it is assumed that the fundamental laws of physics must be invariant under exchange of any two space-time events. The fact that this symmetry if obviously not observed is attributed to the…

The adaptive immune system engages in an arms race with evolving viruses, trying to generate new responses to viral strains that continually move away from the set of variants that have already elicited a functional immune response. In…

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…

Taking a hint from Dirac's large number hypothesis, we note the existence of cosmic combined conservation laws that work to cosmologically long time. We thus modify or generalize Einstein's theory of general relativity with fixed…

We study the temporal reconstruction of epidemics evolving over networks. Given partial or aggregated temporal information of the epidemic, our goal is to estimate the complete evolution of the spread leveraging the topology of the network…

We study the dynamics of an epidemic-like model for the spread of a rumor on a small-world network. It has been shown that this model exhibits a transition between regimes of localization and propagation at a finite value of the network…

We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the…

Analytical studies of network epidemiology almost exclusively focus on the extreme situations where the time scales of network dynamics are well separated (longer or shorter) from that of epidemic propagation. In realistic scenarios,…

Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian calendar-time survival model motivated by infectious disease prevention studies occurring during an epidemic, when the risk of infection can change rapidly as the epidemic curve shifts. For studies in…

Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…

We study the SIR epidemic model with infections carried by $k$ particles making independent random walks on a random regular graph. Here we assume $k\leq n^{\epsilon}$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the random graph, and $\epsilon$…

In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…

We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…

Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…