相关论文: Epidemiological theory of virus variants

An elementary biostatistical theory based on a selectivity-variability principle is proposed to address a question raised by Charles Darwin, namely, how one sex of a sexually dimorphic species might tend to evolve with greater variability…

We study spreading processes in temporal graphs, i. e., graphs whose connections change over time. These processes naturally model real-world phenomena such as infectious diseases or information flows. More precisely, we investigate how…

Many real world networks are characterized by adaptive changes in their topology depending on the dynamic state of their nodes. Here we study epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network, where susceptibles are able to avoid contact with…

We study the notion of a causal time-evolution of a conserved nonlocal physical quantity in a globally hyperbolic spacetime $\mathcal{M}$. The role of the `global time' is played by a chosen Cauchy temporal function $\mathcal{T}$, whereas…

We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the…

Single virus epidemics over complete networks are widely explored in the literature as the fraction of infected nodes is, under appropriate microscopic modeling of the virus infection, a Markov process. With non-complete networks, this…

We study convergence properties of competing epidemic models of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type. The SIS epidemic model has seen widespread popularity in modelling the spreading dynamics of contagions such as viruses,…

Some recent works reveal that there are models of differential equations for the mean and variance of infected individuals that reproduce the SIS epidemic model at some point. This stochastic SIS epidemic model can be interpreted as a…

We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…

Cooperation and competition between pathogens can alter the amount of individuals affected by a co-infection. Nonetheless, the evolution of the pathogens' behavior has been overlooked. Here, we consider a co-evolutionary model where the…

We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…

Competition within the immune system may degrade immune control of viral infections. We formalize the evolution that occurs in both HIV-1 and the immune system quasispecies. Inclusion of competition in the immune system leads to a novel…

Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

We develop an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) model to account for spatial variations in population as well as infection and recovery parameters. The equations are derived by taking the continuum limit of discrete…

We propose a new stochastic epidemiological model defined in a continuous space of arbitrary dimension, based on SIS dynamics implemented in a spatial $\Lambda$-Fleming-Viot (SLFV) process. The model can be described by as little as three…

We analize the relational quantum evolution of generally covariant systems in terms of Rovelli's evolving constants of motion and the generalized Heisenberg picture. In order to have a well defined evolution, and a consistent quantum…

This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition,…