相关论文: Epidemiological theory of virus variants

Neutral theories have played a crucial and revolutionary role in fields such as population genetics and biogeography. These theories are critical by definition, in the sense that the overall growth rate of each single allele/species/type…

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…

Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…

We study the stochastic evolution of four species in cyclic competition in a well mixed environment. In systems composed of a finite number $N$ of particles these simple interaction rules result in a rich variety of extinction scenarios,…

Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…

The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…

The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…

Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination…

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…

Diseases spread over temporal networks of interaction events between individuals. Structures of these temporal networks hold the keys to understanding epidemic propagation. One early concept of the literature to aid in discussing these…

Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future. These "severity rates" can change over the course of an epidemic in response to shifting conditions…

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

We study diffusion-type equations supported on structures that are randomly varying in time. After settling the issue of well-posedness, we focus on the asymptotic behavior of solutions: our main result gives sufficient conditions for…

The paper deals with the spread of two competing viruses over a network of population nodes, accounting for pairwise interactions and higher-order interactions (HOI) within and between the population nodes. We study the competitive…

We show that qualitatively different epidemic-like processes from distinct societal domains (finance, social and commercial blockbusters, epidemiology) can be quantitatively understood using the same unifying conceptual framework taking…

Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion…