相关论文: Epidemiological theory of virus variants

We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…

We introduce a minimal multiscale framework that links within-host virus dynamics to population-level SIRS epidemiology through explicit, bidirectional coupling. At the microscopic layer, a two variant quasispecies (master and mutant…

An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…

Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…

Recent outbreaks of infectious diseases have been monitored closely from an epidemiological and microbiological perspective. Extracting from this wealth of data the information that is relevant for the evolution of the pathogen and predict…

Applying a ML approach to the temporal variability of the Spike protein sequence enables us to identify, classify and track emerging virus variants. Our analysis is unbiased, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the…

Viral quasispecies can be regarded as a swarm of genetically related mutants or a quasispecies (QS). A common formalism to approach QS is the replicator-mutator equation (RME). However, a problem with the RME is how to quantify the…

We focus on an epidemiological model (the archetypical SIR system) defined on graphs and study the asymptotic behavior of the solutions as the number of vertices in the graph diverges. By relying on the theory of so called graphons we…

We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…

Based on a recent model of evolving viruses competing with an adapting immune system [1], we study the conditions under which a viral quasispecies can maximize its growth rate. The range of mutation rates that allows viruses to thrive is…

The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…

Numerous elements drive the spread of infectious diseases in complex real-world networks. Of particular interest is social behaviors that evolve in tandem with the spread of disease. Moreover, recent studies highlight the importance of…

In this article, we are interested in a non-monotone system of logistic reaction-diffusion equations. This system of equations models an epidemics where two types of pathogens are competing, and a mutation can change one type into the other…

The main purpose of this paper is to study the local dynamics and bifurcations of a discrete-time SIR epidemiological model. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic fixed points are investigated along with a fairly complete…

We investigate the SIR epidemic on a dynamic inhomogeneous Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, in which vertices are of one of $k$ types and in which edges appear and disappear independently of each other. We establish a functional law of large…

Traditional studies about disease dynamics have focused on global stability issues, due to their epidemiological importance. We study a classical SIR-SI model for arboviruses in two different directions: we begin by describing an…

Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…

How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade…

We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…