相关论文: Global jump filters and realized volatility

We estimate a general mixture of Markov jump processes. The key novel feature of the proposed mixture is that the transition intensity matrices of the Markov processes comprising the mixture are entirely unconstrained. The Markov processes…

Given the univariate marginals of a real-valued, continuous-time martingale, (respectively, a family of measures parameterised by $t \in [0,T]$ which is increasing in convex order, or a double continuum of call prices) we construct a family…

This paper focuses on the task of detecting local episodes involving violation of the standard It\^o semimartingale assumption for financial asset prices in real time that might induce arbitrage opportunities. Our proposed detectors,…

We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity.…

We provide a nonparametric method for the computation of instantaneous multivariate volatility for continuous semi-martingales, which is based on Fourier analysis. The co-volatility is reconstructed as a stochastic function of time by…

The paper proposes a class of financial market models which are based on inhomogeneous telegraph processes and jump diffusions with alternating volatilities. It is assumed that the jumps occur when the tendencies and volatilities are…

We consider a multidimensional Ito semimartingale regularly sampled on [0,t] at high frequency 1/\Delta_n, with \Delta_n going to zero. The goal of this paper is to provide an estimator for the integral over [0,t] of a given function of the…

Cluster randomization trials commonly employ multiple endpoints. When a single summary of treatment effects across endpoints is of primary interest, global hypothesis testing/effect estimation methods represent a common analysis strategy.…

In this paper, we propose a new threshold-kernel jump-detection method for jump-diffusion processes, which iteratively applies thresholding and kernel methods in an approximately optimal way to achieve improved finite-sample performance. We…

We consider an infinite horizon optimal control problem for a pure jump Markov process $X$, taking values in a complete and separable metric space $I$, with noise-free partial observation. The observation process is defined as $Y_t =…

Jump inequalities are the $r=2$ endpoint of L\'epingle's inequality for $r$-variation of martingales. Extending earlier work by Pisier and Xu we interpret these inequalities in terms of Banach spaces which are real interpolation spaces.…

The infimum of an integrated current is its extreme value against the direction of its average flow. Using martingale theory, we show that the infima of integrated edge currents in time-homogeneous Markov jump processes are geometrically…

In the present paper we address stochastic optimal control problems for a step process $(X,\mathbb{F})$ under a progressive enlargement of the filtration. The global information is obtained adding to the reference filtration $\mathbb{F}$…

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

The jump behavior of an infinitely active It\^o semimartingale can be conveniently characterized by a jump activity index of Blumenthal-Getoor type, typically assumed to be constant in time. We study Markovian semimartingales with a…

In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

Using the Feynman-Kac and Cameron-Martin-Girsanov formulas, we obtain a generalized integral fluctuation theorem (GIFT) for discrete jump processes by constructing a time-invariable inner product. The existing discrete IFTs can be derived…

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late…

Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…