相关论文: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty

This paper analyzes the bank lending channel and the heterogeneous effects on the euro area, providing evidence that the channel is indeed working. The analysis of the transmission mechanism is based on structural impulse responses to an…

Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to a website. What is the interpretation of the estimated parameters and the standard…

Any data annotation for subjective tasks shows potential variations between individuals. This is particularly true for annotations of emotional responses to musical stimuli. While older approaches to music emotion recognition systems…

The investor is interested in the expected return and he is also concerned about the risk and the uncertainty assumed by the investment. One of the most popular concepts used to measure the risk and the uncertainty is the variance and/or…

Standard methods, standard test conditions and the use of good sensory practices are key elements of sensory testing. However, while compliance assessment by trained and expert assessors is well developed, few information is available on…

Globally operating suppliers face the rising challenge of wholesale pricing under scarce data about retail demand, in contrast to better informed, locally operating retailers. At the same time, as local businesses proliferate, markets…

In many areas of data mining, data is collected from humans beings. In this contribution, we ask the question of how people actually respond to ordinal scales. The main problem observed is that users tend to be volatile in their choices,…

Large language models for subjectivity analysis are typically trained with aggregated labels, which compress variations in human judgment into a single supervision signal. This paradigm overlooks the intrinsic uncertainty of low-agreement…

This paper explores the dynamics of learning in a multi-sector general equilibrium model where firms operate under incomplete information about their production returns to scale. Firms iteratively update their beliefs using maximum…

Statistical uncertainty of different filtration techniques for market network analysis is studied. Two measures of statistical uncertainty are discussed. One is based on conditional risk for multiple decision statistical procedures and…

We analyze the linear response of a market network to shocks based on the bipartite market model we introduced in an earlier paper, which we claimed to be able to identify the time-line of the 2009-2011 Eurozone crisis correctly. We show…

We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade…

The study of affects (i.e., emotions, moods) in the workplace has received a lot of attention in the last 15 years. Despite the fact that software development has been shown to be intellectual, creative, and driven by cognitive activities,…

A step to consilience, starting with a deconstruction of the causality of uncertainty that is embedded in the fundamentals of growth and inequality, following a construction of aggregation laws that disclose the invariance principle across…

We study the effects of introducing information inefficiency in a model for a random linear economy with a representative consumer. This is done by considering statistical, instead of classical, economic general equilibria. Employing two…

We study the equilibrium behavior in a multi-commodity selfish routing game with many types of uncertain users where each user over- or under-estimates their congestion costs by a multiplicative factor. Surprisingly, we find that…

Variations in the low- and high-frequency components of temperature may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. Parametric and non-parametric estimates from three panels of data all find significant heterogeneity in the relative…

Choice consistency with utility maximization, as a key assumption in economics, has been extensively used to evaluate decision quality of individuals and to predict real-world outcomes across different contexts. Here we investigate the…

There is substantial variability in the expectations that communication partners bring into interactions, creating the potential for misunderstandings. To directly probe these gaps and our ability to overcome them, we propose a…

Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior…