相关论文: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty
Senders of messages prefer to communicate uncertainty verbally (e.g., something is likely to happen) rather than numerically (such as 75%), leaving receivers with imprecise information. While it is well established that receivers translate…
Extensive research shows that consumers are generally averse to price discrimination. However, instruments of differential pricing can benefit consumer surplus and alleviate inequity through targeted price discounts. This paper examines how…
There is available an ever-increasing variety of procedures for managing uncertainty. These methods are discussed in the literature of artificial intelligence, as well as in the literature of philosophy of science. Heretofore these methods…
We apply random matrix theory to study the impact of measurement uncertainty on dynamic mode decomposition. Specifically, when the measurements follow a normal probability density function, we show how the moments of that density propagate…
We consider a network of interacting agents and we model the process of choice on the adoption of a given innovative product by means of statistical-mechanics tools. The modelization allows us to focus on the effects of direct interactions…
Uncertainty is an important concept in physics laboratory instruction. However, little work has examined how students reason about uncertainty beyond the introductory (intro) level. In this work we aimed to compare intro and beyond-intro…
One of the major barriers for the retailers is to understand the consumption elasticity they can expect from their contracted demand response (DR) clients. The current trend of DR products provided by retailers are not consumer-specific,…
This paper investigates how dispersion in banks' subjective inflation forecasts is a channel of the transmission of monetary policy to credit supply. We extend the Monti-Klein model of monopolistic banking by incorporating risk aversion,…
Exploiting the geometric nature of statistical divergences, we devise a way to define associated induced uncertainty measures for discrete and finite probability distributions. We also report new uncertainty measures and discuss their…
The underlying idea behind the construction of indices of economic inequality is based on measuring deviations of various portions of low incomes from certain references or benchmarks, that could be point measures like population mean or…
An effective approach to exploration in reinforcement learning is to rely on an agent's uncertainty over the optimal policy, which can yield near-optimal exploration strategies in tabular settings. However, in non-tabular settings that…
Trade policy uncertainty has become a significant feature of today's global economy. While its impact on free trade is evident, its microeconomic effects remain open to debate. This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty…
There are strong incentives to build models that demonstrate outstanding predictive performance on various datasets and benchmarks. We believe these incentives risk a narrow focus on models and on the performance metrics used to evaluate…
The process of European integration resulted in a marked increase in transnational economic flows, yet regional inequalities along many developmental indicators remain. We analyze the unevenness of European economies with respect to the…
Recent wide-spread adoption of electronic and pervasive technologies has enabled the study of human behavior at an unprecedented level, uncovering universal patterns underlying human activity, mobility, and inter-personal communication. In…
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme is a carbon emission allowance trading system designed by Europe to achieve emission reduction targets. The amount of carbon emission caused by production activities is closely related to the…
Counterfactuals in quantitative trade and spatial models are functions of the current state of the world and the model parameters. Common practice treats the current state of the world as perfectly observed, but there is good reason to…
Climate (change) affects the prices of goods and services in different countries or regions differently. Simply relying on aggregate measures or summary statistics, such as the impact of average country temperature changes on HICP headline…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…