相关论文: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty
Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…
Scientists need to compare the support for models based on observed phenomena. The main goal of the evidential paradigm is to quantify the strength of evidence in the data for a reference model relative to an alternative model. This is done…
Debates over the trade-offs between specialization and diversification have long intrigued scholars and policymakers. Specialization can amplify an economy by concentrating on core strengths, while diversification reduces vulnerability by…
Capturing subtle speech disruptions across the psychosis spectrum is challenging because of the inherent variability in speech patterns. This variability reflects individual differences and the fluctuating nature of symptoms in both…
The enterprise value (EV) is a crucial metric in company valuation as it encompasses not only equity but also assets and liabilities, offering a comprehensive measure of total value, especially for companies with diverse capital structures.…
Understanding how market participants react to shocks like scheduled macroeconomic news is crucial for both traders and policymakers. We develop a calibrated data generation process DGP that embeds four stylized trader archetypes retail,…
Recent studies have found evidence of a negative association between economic complexity and inequality at the country level. Moreover, evidence suggests that sophisticated economies tend to outsource products that are less desirable (e.g.…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
Economic transformation -- change in what an economy produces -- is foundational to development and rising standards of living. Our understanding of this process has been propelled recently by two branches of work in the field of economic…
Data integration is a notoriously difficult and heuristic-driven process, especially when ground-truth data are not readily available. This paper presents a measure of uncertainty by providing maximal and minimal ranges of a query outcome…
We test the predictions of the sticky information model using a survey dataset by comparing shoppers accuracy in recalling the prices of regulated and comparable unregulated products. Because regulated product prices are capped, they are…
The problem addressed in this article is the bias to income and expenditure elasticities estimated on pseudo-panel data caused by measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We gauge empirically these biases by comparing…
Natural and artificial collectives exhibit heterogeneities across different dimensions, contributing to the complexity of their behavior. We investigate the effect of two such heterogeneities on collective opinion dynamics: heterogeneity of…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…
Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…
Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…
Economic hardships significantly affect public perception and voting intentions in general elections. The primary focus of my study is to capture the degree of influence that individual economic hardships have on their voting. I utilize the…
In recent years, the need for neutral benchmark studies that focus on the comparison of methods from computational sciences has been increasingly recognised by the scientific community. While general advice on the design and analysis of…