相关论文: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty

It is difficult to evaluate the precision of quantum measurements because it is not possible to conduct a second reference measurement on the same physical system to compare the measurement outcome with a more accurate value of the measured…

The rapid development of Internet technology enables human explore the web and record the traces of online activities. From the analysis of these large-scale data sets (i.e. traces), we can get insights about dynamic behavior of human…

Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify…

In engineering applications almost all processes are described with the help of models. Especially forming machines heavily rely on mathematical models for control and condition monitoring. Inaccuracies during the modeling, manufacturing…

Misinformation -- false or misleading information -- is considered a significant societal concern due to its associated "misinformation effects," such as political polarization, erosion of trust in institutions, problematic behavior, and…

Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and…

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…

Recently several European National Measurement Institutes have established traceable calibration methods for dynamic mechanical quantities, e.g., dynamic force, torque and pressure. However, the use in industry and elsewhere of dynamic…

Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy…

Skill scores, which measure the relative improvement of a forecasting method over a benchmark via consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules, are a standard tool in forecast evaluation, yet their sampling uncertainty is rarely…

In many markets buyers are poorly informed about which firms sell the product (product availability) and prices, and therefore have to spend time to obtain this information. In contrast, sellers typically have a better idea about which…

This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in…

We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs when output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows how their willingness…

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

We propose a method to learn the nonlinear impulse responses to structural shocks using neural networks, and apply it to uncover the effects of US financial shocks. The results reveal substantial asymmetries with respect to the sign of the…

Financial instability has become a significant issue in today's society. While research typically focuses on financial aspects, there is a tendency to overlook time-related aspects of unstable work schedules. The inability to rely on…

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the…

Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy…

We investigate opinion formation in a kinetic exchange opinion model, where opinions are represented by numbers in the real interval $[-1,1]$ and agents are typified by the individual degree of conviction about the opinion that they…