相关论文: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty

The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…

The objective of this study is to analyze the response of firm value, represented by the Tobin's Q (Q) for a group of twelve U.S. durable goods producers to uncertainties in the US Economy. The results, based on an estimated panel quantile…

In this study we present a metric of consensus for Likert scales. The measure gives the level of agreement as the percentage of consensus among respondents. The proposed framework allows to design a positional indicator that gives the…

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) represents the uncertainty realized by the investors during economic policy alterations. EPU is a critical indicator in economic studies to predict future investments, the unemployment rate, and recessions.…

Spreadsheet users regularly deal with uncertainty in their data, for example due to errors and estimates. While an insight into data uncertainty can help in making better informed decisions, prior research suggests that people often use…

Interpreting experimental data in high school experiments can be a difficult task for students, especially when there is large variation in the data. At the same time, calculating the standard deviation poses a challenge for students. In…

How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…

Many research explore how well computers are able to examine emotions displayed by humans and use that data to perform different tasks. However, there have been very few research which evaluate the computers ability to generate emotion…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…

This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…

Effective human-machine collaboration requires machine learning models to externalize uncertainty, so users can reflect and intervene when necessary. For language models, these representations of uncertainty may be impacted by sycophancy…

In this paper we offer a way to measure the knowledge base of an economy in terms of probabilistic entropy. This measure, we hypothesize, is an indication of the extent to which a system, including the economic system, self-organizes. In a…

The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This…

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) conditional on the prevailing level of uncertainty. To obtain exogenous variation in central bank…

Structural change consists of industrial diversification towards more productive, knowledge intensive activities. However, changes in the productive structure bear inherent links with job creation and income distribution. In this paper, we…

Measures of inflation uncertainty and directional risk derived from higher moments of forecast distributions are contaminated by the first moment, but in distinct ways. Using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional…

How do entrepreneurs act on their beliefs when probabilities of outcomes are unknown but subjectively perceived? We theorize that two distinct dimensions of ambiguity attitudes influence entrepreneurial action: ambiguity aversion - the…

The traditional and most common view of economists on the issue of (bad) uncertainty and its effects has been one of partial equilibrium. When the topic is approached from a macroeconomic perspective, the most frequent has been the…