相关论文: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…

We study the evolution of the Earth collision probability of asteroid 2008 TC3 using a short observational arc and small numbers of observations. To assess impact probability, we use techniques that rely on the orbital-element probability…

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. DDH and…

Severe Ionosphere magnetic storms are feared events for integrity and continuity of navigation systems such as EGNOS, the European SBAS (Satellite-Based Augmentation System) complementing GPS and an accurate modelling of this event…

For a broad class of input-output maps, arguments based on the coding theorem from algorithmic information theory (AIT) predict that simple (low Kolmogorov complexity) outputs are exponentially more likely to occur upon uniform random…

The inner asteroid belt between 2.1 and 2.5 au is of particular dynamical significance because it is the dominant source of both chondritic meteorites and near-Earth asteroids. This inner belt is bounded by an eccentricity-type secular…

In a pair of recent articles [PRL 105 (2010) 041302 - arXiv:1005.1132; JHEP 1103 (2011) 056 - arXiv:1012.2867] two of the current authors have developed an entropy bound for equilibrium uncollapsed matter using only classical general…

We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the…

The YORP effect is a small thermal-radiation torque experienced by small asteroids, and is considered to be crucial in their physical and dynamical evolution. It is important to understand this effect by providing measurements of YORP for a…

Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist…

The Yarkovsky effect on real asteroids is complicated to calculate either by analytical or numerical methods, since they are generally irregular in shape. We propose an index to properly characterise the shape of any asteroid, through which…

This note is concerned with weakly interacting stochastic particle systems with possibly singular pairwise interactions. In this setting, we observe a connection between entropic propagation of chaos and exponential concentration bounds for…

This letter gives approximations to an integral appearing in the formula for downlink coverage probability of a typical user in Poisson point process (PPP) based stochastic geometry frameworks of the form $\int_0^\infty \exp\{ - (Ax + B…

We study computing geometric problems on uncertain points. An uncertain point is a point that does not have a fixed location, but rather is described by a probability distribution. When these probability distributions are restricted to a…

The orbital evolution and stability of planetary systems with interaction from the belts is studied using the standard phase-plane analysis. In addition to the fixed point which corresponds to the Keplerian orbit, there are other fixed…

Uncertain input of a mathematical model induces uncertainties in the output and probabilistic sensitivity analysis identifies the influential inputs to guide decision-making. Of practical concern is the probability that the output would, or…

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…

The number of ore-bearing asteroids could well be small and remote telescopic techniques are inadequate to identify such asteroids confidently. Finding an asteroid that can be profitably mined requires proximate observations from assay…

A central challenge in password security is to characterize the attacker's guessing curve i.e., what is the probability that the attacker will crack a random user's password within the first $G$ guesses. A key challenge is that the guessing…