相关论文: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…

In this paper, we develop a semiparametric sensitivity analysis approach designed to address unmeasured confounding in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. We target estimation of the marginal distributions of potential…

Probability of coincidental clustering among the orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups…

Quantifying differences between probability distributions is fundamental to statistics and machine learning, primarily for comparing statistical uncertainty. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty -- due to incomplete knowledge -- requires…

The presence of uncertainty in policy evaluation significantly complicates the process of policy ranking and selection in real-world settings. We formally consider offline policy selection as learning preferences over a set of policy…

Using published simulations of the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), we forecast its ability to determine the masses of individual main-belt asteroids (MBAs) through precise astrometry of any pairs of the ~1.2 million known…

In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred…

Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and…

This paper introduces a novel concept of interval probability measures that enables the representation of imprecise probabilities, or uncertainty, in a natural and coherent manner. Within an algebra of sets, we introduce a notion of weak…

We develop an algorithm for computing bounded reachability probability for hybrid systems, i.e., the probability that the system reaches an unsafe region within a finite number of discrete transitions. In particular, we focus on hybrid…

Let $\{\mu(\cdot,t):t\geq0\}$ be the family of probability measures corresponding to the solution of the inelastic Kac model introduced in Pulvirenti and Toscani [\textit{J. Stat. Phys.} \textbf{114} (2004) 1453-1480]. It has been proved by…

Subjective judgements from experts provide essential information when assessing and modelling threats in respect to cyber-physical systems. For example, the vulnerability of individual system components can be described using multiple…

Context: Potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA) in Earth-crossing orbits pose a constant threat to life on Earth. Several mitigation methods have been proposed, and the most feasible technique appears to be the disintegration of the impactor…

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…

Phase curves of asteroids are typically considered to depend solely on the scattering properties of airless particulate surfaces and the size of the object being studied. In this study, we demonstrate the additional dependence of phase…

We analyze the problem of discrete distribution estimation under $\ell_1$ loss. We provide non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the maximum risk of the empirical distribution (the maximum likelihood estimator), and the minimax risk in…

Forecasting accuracy is bounded by the information available about the future. This paper makes that statement precise using information-theoretic tools. Under logarithmic loss, the expected performance of any probabilistic forecast…

Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…

Using the information theory approach, in both its extensive and nonextensive versions, we estimate the inelasticity parameter $K$ of hadronic reactions together with its distribution and energy dependence from $p\bar{p}$ and $pp$ data. We…

The target asteroid of the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, (101955) Bennu (formerly 1999 RQ$_{36}$), is a half-kilometer near-Earth asteroid with an extraordinarily well constrained orbit. An extensive data set of optical…